Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 1. Juli?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 1. Juli?
16°C 100.0%
14°C oder darunter <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$26,236 Vol.
$26,236 Vol.
1. Juli 2026
14°C oder darunter
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Ja
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C oder höher
Nein
16°C 100.0%
14°C oder darunter <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$26,236 Vol.
$26,236 Vol.
1. Juli 2026
14°C oder darunter
$2,970 Vol.
Nein
15°C
$3,589 Vol.
Nein
16°C
$7,512 Vol.
Ja
17°C
$2,679 Vol.
Nein
18°C
$2,762 Vol.
Nein
19°C
$1,721 Vol.
Nein
20°C
$1,039 Vol.
Nein
21°C
$937 Vol.
Nein
22°C
$1,041 Vol.
Nein
23°C
$851 Vol.
Nein
24°C oder höher
$1,135 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$26,236Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$26,236Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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