Persistent heat across northern France has elevated overnight minimums in Paris well above July climatology, with recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models showing 20–23 °C lows through mid-month under warm advection and limited nocturnal cooling. The tight spread between 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes reflects model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, residual cloud cover, and any weak Atlantic front timing that could shave a degree or two. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these central bins because current high-pressure dominance and above-average soil moisture favor sustained warmth, while tail risks of 21 °C or below hinge on faster cooling signals that have yet to materialize in the latest runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 15. Juli?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 15. Juli?
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,052 Vol.
$12,052 Vol.
15. Juli 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,052 Vol.
$12,052 Vol.
15. Juli 2026
21°C or below
$2,282 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,956 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$1,642 Vol.
No
24°C
$866 Vol.
No
25°C
$799 Vol.
No
26°C
$512 Vol.
No
27°C
$506 Vol.
No
28°C
$395 Vol.
No
29°C
$334 Vol.
No
30°C
$334 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$427 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across northern France has elevated overnight minimums in Paris well above July climatology, with recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models showing 20–23 °C lows through mid-month under warm advection and limited nocturnal cooling. The tight spread between 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes reflects model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, residual cloud cover, and any weak Atlantic front timing that could shave a degree or two. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these central bins because current high-pressure dominance and above-average soil moisture favor sustained warmth, while tail risks of 21 °C or below hinge on faster cooling signals that have yet to materialize in the latest runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$12,052Enddatum
15. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across northern France has elevated overnight minimums in Paris well above July climatology, with recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models showing 20–23 °C lows through mid-month under warm advection and limited nocturnal cooling. The tight spread between 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes reflects model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, residual cloud cover, and any weak Atlantic front timing that could shave a degree or two. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these central bins because current high-pressure dominance and above-average soil moisture favor sustained warmth, while tail risks of 21 °C or below hinge on faster cooling signals that have yet to materialize in the latest runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$12,052Enddatum
15. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Persistent heat across northern France has elevated overnight minimums in Paris well above July climatology, with recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble models showing 20–23 °C lows through mid-month under warm advection and limited nocturnal cooling. The tight spread between 22 °C and 23 °C outcomes reflects model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, residual cloud cover, and any weak Atlantic front timing that could shave a degree or two. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these central bins because current high-pressure dominance and above-average soil moisture favor sustained warmth, while tail risks of 21 °C or below hinge on faster cooling signals that have yet to materialize in the latest runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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