Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 10. Mai?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 10. Mai?
16°C 100.0%
11°C oder darunter <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
11°C oder darunter
Nein
12°C
Nein
13°C
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Ja
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C oder höher
Nein
16°C 100.0%
11°C oder darunter <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
11°C oder darunter
$11,598 Vol.
Nein
12°C
$2,315 Vol.
Nein
13°C
$2,085 Vol.
Nein
14°C
$1,751 Vol.
Nein
15°C
$2,923 Vol.
Nein
16°C
$6,436 Vol.
Ja
17°C
$18,554 Vol.
Nein
18°C
$673 Vol.
Nein
19°C
$1,076 Vol.
Nein
20°C
$876 Vol.
Nein
21°C oder höher
$959 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$49,246Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$49,246Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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