OPEC's continued coordination among core members underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. Recent virtual meetings of eight OPEC+ nations, including production adjustments of 206,000 barrels per day in April and 188,000 barrels per day effective June, demonstrate active quota management and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid low inventories. The scheduled June 7 ministerial meeting and June 18 launch of the World Oil Outlook 2026 further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's April exit highlighted quota tensions and sparked breakup speculation, remaining producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have sustained the framework without structural collapse. Realistic challenges include additional major-member withdrawals or acute geopolitical shocks disrupting supply coordination, though these appear unlikely to trigger full dissolution before December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,606 Vol.
$29,606 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$29,606 Vol.
$29,606 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among core members underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. Recent virtual meetings of eight OPEC+ nations, including production adjustments of 206,000 barrels per day in April and 188,000 barrels per day effective June, demonstrate active quota management and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid low inventories. The scheduled June 7 ministerial meeting and June 18 launch of the World Oil Outlook 2026 further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's April exit highlighted quota tensions and sparked breakup speculation, remaining producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have sustained the framework without structural collapse. Realistic challenges include additional major-member withdrawals or acute geopolitical shocks disrupting supply coordination, though these appear unlikely to trigger full dissolution before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$29,606Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's continued coordination among core members underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. Recent virtual meetings of eight OPEC+ nations, including production adjustments of 206,000 barrels per day in April and 188,000 barrels per day effective June, demonstrate active quota management and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid low inventories. The scheduled June 7 ministerial meeting and June 18 launch of the World Oil Outlook 2026 further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's April exit highlighted quota tensions and sparked breakup speculation, remaining producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have sustained the framework without structural collapse. Realistic challenges include additional major-member withdrawals or acute geopolitical shocks disrupting supply coordination, though these appear unlikely to trigger full dissolution before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,606Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's continued coordination among core members underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the organization will not dissolve by year-end. Recent virtual meetings of eight OPEC+ nations, including production adjustments of 206,000 barrels per day in April and 188,000 barrels per day effective June, demonstrate active quota management and reaffirmed commitments to market stability amid low inventories. The scheduled June 7 ministerial meeting and June 18 launch of the World Oil Outlook 2026 further signal institutional continuity. While the UAE's April exit highlighted quota tensions and sparked breakup speculation, remaining producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have sustained the framework without structural collapse. Realistic challenges include additional major-member withdrawals or acute geopolitical shocks disrupting supply coordination, though these appear unlikely to trigger full dissolution before December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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