OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination among core remaining members underpin the strong trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit over production quotas and reports of Venezuela considering withdrawal, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others continue monthly OPEC+ meetings, with a September 6 session maintaining October output targets amid Iran-related supply disruptions. Historical precedent of adapting to prior exits and the absence of any formal disbandment agreement or majority member withdrawals reinforce the view that full dissolution remains improbable. Late-year escalations in Middle East conflicts or additional high-capacity departures could introduce limited uncertainty, though current quota frameworks and production reviews signal sustained operations through December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
4% Chance
$38,516 Vol.
$38,516 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
4% Chance
$38,516 Vol.
$38,516 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination among core remaining members underpin the strong trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit over production quotas and reports of Venezuela considering withdrawal, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others continue monthly OPEC+ meetings, with a September 6 session maintaining October output targets amid Iran-related supply disruptions. Historical precedent of adapting to prior exits and the absence of any formal disbandment agreement or majority member withdrawals reinforce the view that full dissolution remains improbable. Late-year escalations in Middle East conflicts or additional high-capacity departures could introduce limited uncertainty, though current quota frameworks and production reviews signal sustained operations through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$38,516Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination among core remaining members underpin the strong trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit over production quotas and reports of Venezuela considering withdrawal, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others continue monthly OPEC+ meetings, with a September 6 session maintaining October output targets amid Iran-related supply disruptions. Historical precedent of adapting to prior exits and the absence of any formal disbandment agreement or majority member withdrawals reinforce the view that full dissolution remains improbable. Late-year escalations in Middle East conflicts or additional high-capacity departures could introduce limited uncertainty, though current quota frameworks and production reviews signal sustained operations through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$38,516Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...OPEC’s institutional continuity and active coordination among core remaining members underpin the strong trader consensus against dissolution by year-end. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit over production quotas and reports of Venezuela considering withdrawal, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others continue monthly OPEC+ meetings, with a September 6 session maintaining October output targets amid Iran-related supply disruptions. Historical precedent of adapting to prior exits and the absence of any formal disbandment agreement or majority member withdrawals reinforce the view that full dissolution remains improbable. Late-year escalations in Middle East conflicts or additional high-capacity departures could introduce limited uncertainty, though current quota frameworks and production reviews signal sustained operations through December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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