Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience in the cartel's core despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions and oil prices near $110 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's leadership has reaffirmed commitment to market stability through recent OPEC+ virtual meetings, including a modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike for May announced April 5, underscoring ongoing coordination among eight key producers to manage voluntary cuts totaling 3.6 million b/d. While the UAE departure erodes influence over 40% of global supply, no further defections loom, with monthly reviews poised to address compliance and geopolitical risks like Iran-related disruptions. Historical precedents of member exits without full breakup bolster the skin-in-the-game view of continuity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience in the cartel's core despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions and oil prices near $110 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's leadership has reaffirmed commitment to market stability through recent OPEC+ virtual meetings, including a modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike for May announced April 5, underscoring ongoing coordination among eight key producers to manage voluntary cuts totaling 3.6 million b/d. While the UAE departure erodes influence over 40% of global supply, no further defections loom, with monthly reviews poised to address compliance and geopolitical risks like Iran-related disruptions. Historical precedents of member exits without full breakup bolster the skin-in-the-game view of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$7,370Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience in the cartel's core despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions and oil prices near $110 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's leadership has reaffirmed commitment to market stability through recent OPEC+ virtual meetings, including a modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike for May announced April 5, underscoring ongoing coordination among eight key producers to manage voluntary cuts totaling 3.6 million b/d. While the UAE departure erodes influence over 40% of global supply, no further defections loom, with monthly reviews poised to address compliance and geopolitical risks like Iran-related disruptions. Historical precedents of member exits without full breakup bolster the skin-in-the-game view of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,370Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience in the cartel's core despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions and oil prices near $110 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's leadership has reaffirmed commitment to market stability through recent OPEC+ virtual meetings, including a modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike for May announced April 5, underscoring ongoing coordination among eight key producers to manage voluntary cuts totaling 3.6 million b/d. While the UAE departure erodes influence over 40% of global supply, no further defections loom, with monthly reviews poised to address compliance and geopolitical risks like Iran-related disruptions. Historical precedents of member exits without full breakup bolster the skin-in-the-game view of continuity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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