The UAE’s May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in OPEC’s history—has already reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted quota frustrations, production-capacity ambitions, and Gulf rivalries intensified by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Remaining members continue coordinated OPEC+ supply management through late 2026, with no additional formal exits announced despite Iraq’s reported quota complaints in June and Venezuela’s consideration of withdrawal amid sanctions relief talks in August. Traders assign the 61.5 percent “no” probability to the absence of confirmed further departures, the group’s demonstrated resilience after prior exits, and the limited window remaining for new announcements before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% Chance
$174,404 Vol.
$174,404 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
39% Chance
$174,404 Vol.
$174,404 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in OPEC’s history—has already reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted quota frustrations, production-capacity ambitions, and Gulf rivalries intensified by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Remaining members continue coordinated OPEC+ supply management through late 2026, with no additional formal exits announced despite Iraq’s reported quota complaints in June and Venezuela’s consideration of withdrawal amid sanctions relief talks in August. Traders assign the 61.5 percent “no” probability to the absence of confirmed further departures, the group’s demonstrated resilience after prior exits, and the limited window remaining for new announcements before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$174,404Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in OPEC’s history—has already reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted quota frustrations, production-capacity ambitions, and Gulf rivalries intensified by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Remaining members continue coordinated OPEC+ supply management through late 2026, with no additional formal exits announced despite Iraq’s reported quota complaints in June and Venezuela’s consideration of withdrawal amid sanctions relief talks in August. Traders assign the 61.5 percent “no” probability to the absence of confirmed further departures, the group’s demonstrated resilience after prior exits, and the limited window remaining for new announcements before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$174,404Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s May 2026 exit—the largest producer departure in OPEC’s history—has already reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted quota frustrations, production-capacity ambitions, and Gulf rivalries intensified by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Remaining members continue coordinated OPEC+ supply management through late 2026, with no additional formal exits announced despite Iraq’s reported quota complaints in June and Venezuela’s consideration of withdrawal amid sanctions relief talks in August. Traders assign the 61.5 percent “no” probability to the absence of confirmed further departures, the group’s demonstrated resilience after prior exits, and the limited window remaining for new announcements before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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