Despite Israel's and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during the early 2026 conflict, IAEA reports from February and March confirm no resumption of proliferation-sensitive activities like weaponization, with Tehran maintaining but not expanding its 60% highly enriched uranium stockpile amid restricted agency access. U.S. intelligence assessments reiterate Iran has not authorized nuclear bomb production, prioritizing diplomacy including failed direct talks in Pakistan and UN nuclear chief calls on April 15 for verification in potential de-escalation pacts. Trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" reflects these barriers—political restraint under Supreme Leader Khamenei, sanctions, breakout timelines exceeding one year for a testable device, and escalation risks—though covert sprinting or regime shifts could alter outcomes before 2027 resolution.