**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have substantially delayed any potential breakout timeline, underpinning trader consensus around the 92.7% probability that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027.** Strikes in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer) and February 2026 targeted enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging above-ground infrastructure and access points while rendering key facilities inoperable for sustained high-level enrichment. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate these actions extended Iran's estimated time to produce weapons-grade material and assemble a device to roughly nine to twelve months if a decision were made, with limited additional degradation from the later campaign. The IAEA's June 2026 reports confirm ongoing loss of monitoring access, an unverified stockpile of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, and no evidence of a structured weaponization effort. Iran has not resumed reported enrichment at damaged sites, though reconstruction and concealment activities continue at secondary locations. Negotiations have produced no agreement on permanent limits or material removal, yet the physical setbacks and verification gaps keep near-term weapon acquisition improbable absent major unobserved advances.