Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale mobilization or amphibious preparations in the remaining days of the window. Chinese military activity continues through routine air and naval patrols plus expanded coast guard operations east of the island, consistent with ongoing gray-zone pressure rather than imminent full-scale assault. Taiwan has responded with combat-readiness drills and defense budgeting focused on resilience, while cross-strait diplomatic channels remain open. The short timeline precludes the extensive logistics, troop movements, and pre-positioning required for invasion. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, sudden leadership shifts, or unanticipated external crises represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome before the cutoff.