**Strong regulatory and political barriers explain why traders assign a 75.5% probability that Apple will not purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026.** Despite memory price spikes from AI-driven demand and Apple's June–August 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, the Chinese DRAM maker remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-linked list. Early testing of CXMT LPDDR chips for iPhones and MacBooks, plus talks focused on China-market devices, faces bipartisan pushback in Washington and historical precedent from the blocked YMTC effort in 2022. CXMT’s capacity is largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, and Beijing may prioritize domestic buyers. These factors outweigh short-term cost pressures and keep market-implied odds firmly against a deal materializing this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
25% Chance
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
25% Chance
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong regulatory and political barriers explain why traders assign a 75.5% probability that Apple will not purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026.** Despite memory price spikes from AI-driven demand and Apple's June–August 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, the Chinese DRAM maker remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-linked list. Early testing of CXMT LPDDR chips for iPhones and MacBooks, plus talks focused on China-market devices, faces bipartisan pushback in Washington and historical precedent from the blocked YMTC effort in 2022. CXMT’s capacity is largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, and Beijing may prioritize domestic buyers. These factors outweigh short-term cost pressures and keep market-implied odds firmly against a deal materializing this year.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$21,395Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong regulatory and political barriers explain why traders assign a 75.5% probability that Apple will not purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026.** Despite memory price spikes from AI-driven demand and Apple's June–August 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, the Chinese DRAM maker remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-linked list. Early testing of CXMT LPDDR chips for iPhones and MacBooks, plus talks focused on China-market devices, faces bipartisan pushback in Washington and historical precedent from the blocked YMTC effort in 2022. CXMT’s capacity is largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, and Beijing may prioritize domestic buyers. These factors outweigh short-term cost pressures and keep market-implied odds firmly against a deal materializing this year.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,395Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Strong regulatory and political barriers explain why traders assign a 75.5% probability that Apple will not purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026.** Despite memory price spikes from AI-driven demand and Apple's June–August 2026 lobbying of the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, the Chinese DRAM maker remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-linked list. Early testing of CXMT LPDDR chips for iPhones and MacBooks, plus talks focused on China-market devices, faces bipartisan pushback in Washington and historical precedent from the blocked YMTC effort in 2022. CXMT’s capacity is largely booked through 2027 at high utilization, and Beijing may prioritize domestic buyers. These factors outweigh short-term cost pressures and keep market-implied odds firmly against a deal materializing this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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