Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert28. September 14%
23. September 13%
24. September 12%
25. September 12%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
Am oder vor dem 16. September
1%
17. September
7%
18. September
6%
19. September
1%
20. September
5%
21. September
7%
22. September
10%
23. September
13%
24. September
12%
25. September
12%
26. September
5%
27. September
5%
28. September
14%
29. September
12%
30. September
11%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
10%
28. September 14%
23. September 13%
24. September 12%
25. September 12%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
Am oder vor dem 16. September
$149 Vol.
1%
17. September
$397 Vol.
7%
18. September
$0 Vol.
6%
19. September
$447 Vol.
1%
20. September
$468 Vol.
5%
21. September
$0 Vol.
7%
22. September
$0 Vol.
10%
23. September
$0 Vol.
13%
24. September
$0 Vol.
12%
25. September
$0 Vol.
12%
26. September
$447 Vol.
5%
27. September
$447 Vol.
5%
28. September
$0 Vol.
14%
29. September
$0 Vol.
12%
30. September
$0 Vol.
11%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$2,354Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,354Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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