Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious, naval, or logistical preparations required for such an operation. Beijing continues to prioritize gray-zone coercion through normalized patrols, air defense identification zone activity, and information campaigns rather than the sustained buildup needed for a decisive campaign. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang drills mobilized record reservists, tested drone navigation systems resistant to electronic warfare, and rehearsed supply resilience and U.S.-inspired communications, underscoring defensive adaptations. U.S. assessments indicate Chinese leadership favors non-kinetic unification paths amid operational risks. An abrupt miscalculation or unforeseen trigger could still alter dynamics before year-end, though current indicators show no credible path within the timeframe.