**US intelligence assessments and Beijing’s preference for coercive unification short of war underpin the 93.8% trader probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.** The March 2026 US Annual Threat Assessment explicitly states that Chinese leaders do not currently plan an invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline for forcible unification, citing the extreme difficulty and high risk of failure in any amphibious operation—especially if the United States intervenes. This assessment aligns with ongoing patterns of gray-zone activity rather than invasion preparations: normalized People’s Liberation Army air incursions, China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic large-scale exercises such as the December 2025 blockade simulation. These actions erode Taiwan’s position without crossing the threshold into kinetic conflict. Analysts note that Beijing continues to prioritize diplomatic, economic, and information pressure alongside military posturing, consistent with its long-standing “short-of-war coercion” campaign. With only months remaining in 2026 and no verified surge in amphibious lift, logistics, or pre-positioning indicative of imminent assault, traders price in the significant barriers—including military readiness gaps, potential third-party involvement, and severe economic repercussions—that make a major offensive unlikely before year-end. Scheduled regional exercises and routine cross-strait frictions have not altered this consensus.