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Welt·Trump

Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?

icon for Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?
Welt·Trump

Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Ja

10% Chance
Polymarket

$51,592 Vol.

Ja

10% Chance
Polymarket

$51,592 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". US allies continue to rely on extended nuclear deterrence commitments from Washington, reinforced through bilateral and trilateral dialogues, while reaffirming adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forgoing independent weapons programs. No US ally has initiated or advanced a verifiable indigenous nuclear weapons effort in recent months, despite periodic public debate in South Korea and Japan over security guarantees amid regional threats. Technical, diplomatic, and domestic political barriers remain substantial, with breakout timelines for even advanced latent capabilities typically exceeding the 2027 horizon absent major policy reversals. Trader consensus reflected in the 90.1% probability for "No" aligns with this stable nonproliferation posture, though rapid escalation in adversary capabilities or shifts in alliance assurances could still introduce tail risks before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volumen
$51,592
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". US allies continue to rely on extended nuclear deterrence commitments from Washington, reinforced through bilateral and trilateral dialogues, while reaffirming adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forgoing independent weapons programs. No US ally has initiated or advanced a verifiable indigenous nuclear weapons effort in recent months, despite periodic public debate in South Korea and Japan over security guarantees amid regional threats. Technical, diplomatic, and domestic political barriers remain substantial, with breakout timelines for even advanced latent capabilities typically exceeding the 2027 horizon absent major policy reversals. Trader consensus reflected in the 90.1% probability for "No" aligns with this stable nonproliferation posture, though rapid escalation in adversary capabilities or shifts in alliance assurances could still introduce tail risks before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volumen
$51,592
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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