Recent diplomatic contacts, including a September 8 phone call and U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have sustained momentum for U.S.-Russia engagement on Ukraine without producing a scheduled in-person summit. Traders assign China the highest probability as a neutral venue conducive to high-level talks amid ongoing tensions, consistent with patterns in multilateral diplomacy. The substantial share for no meeting by year-end reflects stalled progress on core issues like territorial demands and security guarantees, with limited movement toward U.S. or Russian soil due to domestic and alliance considerations. Other locations remain low-probability given the absence of recent signals or historical precedent in the current cycle.