Ongoing active hostilities and the absence of a ceasefire continue to block any Ukrainian referendum on a prospective peace agreement, as constitutional requirements and martial law restrictions preclude such votes without security guarantees and an end to fighting. Trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks in early 2026 produced no breakthroughs on territorial issues or security arrangements, and by mid-July Moscow stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations. Ukrainian public opinion remains divided on territorial compromises, with polls showing majority opposition to ceding additional land, while stalled diplomacy and competing US priorities have kept momentum low. These factors underpin trader consensus that a binding referendum is unlikely before the 2027 cutoff.