**Trump has shown no inclination to grant formal diplomatic recognition to Somaliland before 2027, consistent with the 90.5% “No” probability on the market.** Since returning to office in 2025, the administration has maintained the longstanding U.S. policy of supporting Somalia’s territorial integrity. In August 2025 Trump indicated his team was “looking into” the issue after Somaliland offered military basing rights and critical minerals access, and Senator Ted Cruz publicly urged recognition. However, following Israel’s December 26, 2025, recognition of Somaliland—the first by any UN member state—Trump explicitly stated he would not follow suit, telling reporters the United States was “not ready” and questioning broader familiarity with the territory. The State Department reaffirmed no policy change. Somaliland continues to lobby with strategic incentives and enjoys backing from some Republican lawmakers, while Somalia has countered with its own basing and minerals offers. Counterterrorism cooperation concerns with Mogadishu and potential regional pushback from actors invested in Somalia remain cited obstacles. As of mid-2026, no new official actions, legislative breakthroughs, or diplomatic shifts have materialized to alter the trajectory, leaving recognition unlikely within the narrow remaining window before 2027.