Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Fed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Keine Änderung 71%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 27%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$1,029,380 Vol.
$1,029,380 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Keine Änderung
71%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
27%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 71%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 27%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$1,029,380 Vol.
$1,029,380 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$174,566 Vol.
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$365,496 Vol.
4%
Keine Änderung
$188,198 Vol.
71%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$179,317 Vol.
27%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$121,802 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,029,380Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,029,380Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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