President Donald Trump faces significant structural barriers to early departure from office before the end of 2026, including the high thresholds for Senate conviction on impeachment articles and invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent developments show the administration continuing active governance through executive orders, cabinet meetings, and foreign policy actions such as Iran-related diplomacy as of early August 2026. Midterm elections in November could shift House control and raise the prospect of additional impeachment proceedings, yet historical patterns indicate low likelihood of successful removal absent bipartisan support. Trader consensus at 93.5% probability of remaining in office aligns with these procedural realities and the absence of reported health concerns or resignation indicators that could alter the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$10,447,098 Vol.
$10,447,098 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$10,447,098 Vol.
$10,447,098 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump faces significant structural barriers to early departure from office before the end of 2026, including the high thresholds for Senate conviction on impeachment articles and invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent developments show the administration continuing active governance through executive orders, cabinet meetings, and foreign policy actions such as Iran-related diplomacy as of early August 2026. Midterm elections in November could shift House control and raise the prospect of additional impeachment proceedings, yet historical patterns indicate low likelihood of successful removal absent bipartisan support. Trader consensus at 93.5% probability of remaining in office aligns with these procedural realities and the absence of reported health concerns or resignation indicators that could alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$10,447,098Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump faces significant structural barriers to early departure from office before the end of 2026, including the high thresholds for Senate conviction on impeachment articles and invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent developments show the administration continuing active governance through executive orders, cabinet meetings, and foreign policy actions such as Iran-related diplomacy as of early August 2026. Midterm elections in November could shift House control and raise the prospect of additional impeachment proceedings, yet historical patterns indicate low likelihood of successful removal absent bipartisan support. Trader consensus at 93.5% probability of remaining in office aligns with these procedural realities and the absence of reported health concerns or resignation indicators that could alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,447,098Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump faces significant structural barriers to early departure from office before the end of 2026, including the high thresholds for Senate conviction on impeachment articles and invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent developments show the administration continuing active governance through executive orders, cabinet meetings, and foreign policy actions such as Iran-related diplomacy as of early August 2026. Midterm elections in November could shift House control and raise the prospect of additional impeachment proceedings, yet historical patterns indicate low likelihood of successful removal absent bipartisan support. Trader consensus at 93.5% probability of remaining in office aligns with these procedural realities and the absence of reported health concerns or resignation indicators that could alter the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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