The trader consensus at 93.5% for Trump remaining in office through the end of 2026 reflects the low historical base rate for early presidential exits combined with the absence of acute health, legal, or institutional crises that could trigger resignation or removal before January 2027. As of early August 2026, no verified developments such as serious medical incidents, successful impeachment proceedings with bipartisan support, or forced departures have materialized during the second term. Ongoing actions, including executive branch appointments and foreign policy moves earlier in the year, demonstrate continued operational capacity. The approaching November 2026 midterms introduce potential shifts in congressional dynamics but fall after the resolution window, leaving limited pathways for an early exit under current conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$10,447,117 Vol.
$10,447,117 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$10,447,117 Vol.
$10,447,117 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus at 93.5% for Trump remaining in office through the end of 2026 reflects the low historical base rate for early presidential exits combined with the absence of acute health, legal, or institutional crises that could trigger resignation or removal before January 2027. As of early August 2026, no verified developments such as serious medical incidents, successful impeachment proceedings with bipartisan support, or forced departures have materialized during the second term. Ongoing actions, including executive branch appointments and foreign policy moves earlier in the year, demonstrate continued operational capacity. The approaching November 2026 midterms introduce potential shifts in congressional dynamics but fall after the resolution window, leaving limited pathways for an early exit under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$10,447,117Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The trader consensus at 93.5% for Trump remaining in office through the end of 2026 reflects the low historical base rate for early presidential exits combined with the absence of acute health, legal, or institutional crises that could trigger resignation or removal before January 2027. As of early August 2026, no verified developments such as serious medical incidents, successful impeachment proceedings with bipartisan support, or forced departures have materialized during the second term. Ongoing actions, including executive branch appointments and foreign policy moves earlier in the year, demonstrate continued operational capacity. The approaching November 2026 midterms introduce potential shifts in congressional dynamics but fall after the resolution window, leaving limited pathways for an early exit under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,447,117Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus at 93.5% for Trump remaining in office through the end of 2026 reflects the low historical base rate for early presidential exits combined with the absence of acute health, legal, or institutional crises that could trigger resignation or removal before January 2027. As of early August 2026, no verified developments such as serious medical incidents, successful impeachment proceedings with bipartisan support, or forced departures have materialized during the second term. Ongoing actions, including executive branch appointments and foreign policy moves earlier in the year, demonstrate continued operational capacity. The approaching November 2026 midterms introduce potential shifts in congressional dynamics but fall after the resolution window, leaving limited pathways for an early exit under current conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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