The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$10,447,955 Vol.
$10,447,955 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$10,447,955 Vol.
$10,447,955 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$10,447,955Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,447,955Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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