Recent polls showing RZP leader Bezalel Smotrich’s party falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold due to vote splitting from Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party have intensified right-wing bloc concerns ahead of the October 27, 2026, Knesset vote. Netanyahu has publicly pressed Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to merge their lists, but Ben-Gvir has rejected the idea, while RZP completed independent primaries in July and is finalizing its own slate for submission by early September. Likud has floated reserving slots for Smotrich on its list in earlier discussions, yet no joint technical bloc or merged ticket with RZP has materialized amid separate party structures and competing outreach to religious-Zionist voters. These dynamics underpin trader expectations that the two parties will contest the election separately.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
30% Chance
NEU
NEU
7. Sep. 2026
Ja
30% Chance
NEU
NEU
7. Sep. 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls showing RZP leader Bezalel Smotrich’s party falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold due to vote splitting from Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party have intensified right-wing bloc concerns ahead of the October 27, 2026, Knesset vote. Netanyahu has publicly pressed Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to merge their lists, but Ben-Gvir has rejected the idea, while RZP completed independent primaries in July and is finalizing its own slate for submission by early September. Likud has floated reserving slots for Smotrich on its list in earlier discussions, yet no joint technical bloc or merged ticket with RZP has materialized amid separate party structures and competing outreach to religious-Zionist voters. These dynamics underpin trader expectations that the two parties will contest the election separately.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$64Enddatum
7. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls showing RZP leader Bezalel Smotrich’s party falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold due to vote splitting from Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party have intensified right-wing bloc concerns ahead of the October 27, 2026, Knesset vote. Netanyahu has publicly pressed Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to merge their lists, but Ben-Gvir has rejected the idea, while RZP completed independent primaries in July and is finalizing its own slate for submission by early September. Likud has floated reserving slots for Smotrich on its list in earlier discussions, yet no joint technical bloc or merged ticket with RZP has materialized amid separate party structures and competing outreach to religious-Zionist voters. These dynamics underpin trader expectations that the two parties will contest the election separately.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volumen
$64Enddatum
7. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent polls showing RZP leader Bezalel Smotrich’s party falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold due to vote splitting from Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party have intensified right-wing bloc concerns ahead of the October 27, 2026, Knesset vote. Netanyahu has publicly pressed Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to merge their lists, but Ben-Gvir has rejected the idea, while RZP completed independent primaries in July and is finalizing its own slate for submission by early September. Likud has floated reserving slots for Smotrich on its list in earlier discussions, yet no joint technical bloc or merged ticket with RZP has materialized amid separate party structures and competing outreach to religious-Zionist voters. These dynamics underpin trader expectations that the two parties will contest the election separately.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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