**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** The IAEA has lacked on-site verification and continuity of knowledge over this material since June 2025, with inspectors denied access to critical sites. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but no active uranium enrichment or weaponization steps have been verified. On September 10, 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such action in two decades—while US officials have publicly warned against further advances at the site. With only months remaining before 2027 and Iran's program described as dormant amid heightened military and diplomatic pressure, traders see substantial barriers to an observable nuclear test in the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
5% Chance
$258,462 Vol.
$258,462 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$258,462 Vol.
$258,462 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** The IAEA has lacked on-site verification and continuity of knowledge over this material since June 2025, with inspectors denied access to critical sites. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but no active uranium enrichment or weaponization steps have been verified. On September 10, 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such action in two decades—while US officials have publicly warned against further advances at the site. With only months remaining before 2027 and Iran's program described as dormant amid heightened military and diplomatic pressure, traders see substantial barriers to an observable nuclear test in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$258,462Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** The IAEA has lacked on-site verification and continuity of knowledge over this material since June 2025, with inspectors denied access to critical sites. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but no active uranium enrichment or weaponization steps have been verified. On September 10, 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such action in two decades—while US officials have publicly warned against further advances at the site. With only months remaining before 2027 and Iran's program described as dormant amid heightened military and diplomatic pressure, traders see substantial barriers to an observable nuclear test in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$258,462Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** The IAEA has lacked on-site verification and continuity of knowledge over this material since June 2025, with inspectors denied access to critical sites. Satellite imagery confirms ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but no active uranium enrichment or weaponization steps have been verified. On September 10, 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such action in two decades—while US officials have publicly warned against further advances at the site. With only months remaining before 2027 and Iran's program described as dormant amid heightened military and diplomatic pressure, traders see substantial barriers to an observable nuclear test in the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen