**No nuclear test by Iran before 2027 reflects trader consensus on severe setbacks to its program from US-Israeli airstrikes launched February 28, 2026, targeting enrichment sites like Natanz—where aboveground facilities were destroyed—and the bunkered Taleghan 2 complex, a suspected nuclear test site, as shown in March satellite imagery.** IAEA April 6 updates confirmed no radiation spikes or detonations post-strikes, while February reports noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified March 18 that Tehran has not resumed weaponization. Ceasefire talks as of April 27 demand IAEA access without Iranian concessions on highly enriched uranium, reinforcing military deterrence and diplomatic constraints amid ongoing regional tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$179,355 Vol.
$179,355 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$179,355 Vol.
$179,355 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**No nuclear test by Iran before 2027 reflects trader consensus on severe setbacks to its program from US-Israeli airstrikes launched February 28, 2026, targeting enrichment sites like Natanz—where aboveground facilities were destroyed—and the bunkered Taleghan 2 complex, a suspected nuclear test site, as shown in March satellite imagery.** IAEA April 6 updates confirmed no radiation spikes or detonations post-strikes, while February reports noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified March 18 that Tehran has not resumed weaponization. Ceasefire talks as of April 27 demand IAEA access without Iranian concessions on highly enriched uranium, reinforcing military deterrence and diplomatic constraints amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$179,355Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**No nuclear test by Iran before 2027 reflects trader consensus on severe setbacks to its program from US-Israeli airstrikes launched February 28, 2026, targeting enrichment sites like Natanz—where aboveground facilities were destroyed—and the bunkered Taleghan 2 complex, a suspected nuclear test site, as shown in March satellite imagery.** IAEA April 6 updates confirmed no radiation spikes or detonations post-strikes, while February reports noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified March 18 that Tehran has not resumed weaponization. Ceasefire talks as of April 27 demand IAEA access without Iranian concessions on highly enriched uranium, reinforcing military deterrence and diplomatic constraints amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$179,355Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No nuclear test by Iran before 2027 reflects trader consensus on severe setbacks to its program from US-Israeli airstrikes launched February 28, 2026, targeting enrichment sites like Natanz—where aboveground facilities were destroyed—and the bunkered Taleghan 2 complex, a suspected nuclear test site, as shown in March satellite imagery.** IAEA April 6 updates confirmed no radiation spikes or detonations post-strikes, while February reports noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified March 18 that Tehran has not resumed weaponization. Ceasefire talks as of April 27 demand IAEA access without Iranian concessions on highly enriched uranium, reinforcing military deterrence and diplomatic constraints amid ongoing regional tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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