Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 that inflicted severe damage on key nuclear sites including Taleghan 2 and facilities near Isfahan, per satellite imagery and post-strike assessments. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 60% uranium enrichment but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with no radiation anomalies detected after strikes. A fragile ceasefire holds amid stalled diplomatic talks, while Tehran denies weapons ambitions under Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa. These setbacks extend Iran's breakout timeline, though IAEA access denials and reorganization efforts introduce uncertainty ahead of potential verification deals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$176,294 Vol.
$176,294 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$176,294 Vol.
$176,294 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 that inflicted severe damage on key nuclear sites including Taleghan 2 and facilities near Isfahan, per satellite imagery and post-strike assessments. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 60% uranium enrichment but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with no radiation anomalies detected after strikes. A fragile ceasefire holds amid stalled diplomatic talks, while Tehran denies weapons ambitions under Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa. These setbacks extend Iran's breakout timeline, though IAEA access denials and reorganization efforts introduce uncertainty ahead of potential verification deals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$176,294Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 that inflicted severe damage on key nuclear sites including Taleghan 2 and facilities near Isfahan, per satellite imagery and post-strike assessments. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 60% uranium enrichment but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with no radiation anomalies detected after strikes. A fragile ceasefire holds amid stalled diplomatic talks, while Tehran denies weapons ambitions under Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa. These setbacks extend Iran's breakout timeline, though IAEA access denials and reorganization efforts introduce uncertainty ahead of potential verification deals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$176,294Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 that inflicted severe damage on key nuclear sites including Taleghan 2 and facilities near Isfahan, per satellite imagery and post-strike assessments. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 60% uranium enrichment but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with no radiation anomalies detected after strikes. A fragile ceasefire holds amid stalled diplomatic talks, while Tehran denies weapons ambitions under Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa. These setbacks extend Iran's breakout timeline, though IAEA access denials and reorganization efforts introduce uncertainty ahead of potential verification deals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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