**Military strikes by Israel and the United States in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most installed centrifuges and related infrastructure.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, leaving limited verification of remaining stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. U.S. intelligence assessments, including Director of National Intelligence testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, with some near-weapons-grade material reportedly buried under rubble and no structured weaponization program underway. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April 2026 led to negotiations, though demands for permanent enrichment limits remain unresolved. These developments have extended Iran's breakout timeline, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before the end of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes by Israel and the United States in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most installed centrifuges and related infrastructure.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, leaving limited verification of remaining stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. U.S. intelligence assessments, including Director of National Intelligence testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, with some near-weapons-grade material reportedly buried under rubble and no structured weaponization program underway. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April 2026 led to negotiations, though demands for permanent enrichment limits remain unresolved. These developments have extended Iran's breakout timeline, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$206,751Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes by Israel and the United States in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most installed centrifuges and related infrastructure.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, leaving limited verification of remaining stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. U.S. intelligence assessments, including Director of National Intelligence testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, with some near-weapons-grade material reportedly buried under rubble and no structured weaponization program underway. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April 2026 led to negotiations, though demands for permanent enrichment limits remain unresolved. These developments have extended Iran's breakout timeline, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$206,751Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Military strikes by Israel and the United States in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most installed centrifuges and related infrastructure.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, leaving limited verification of remaining stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. U.S. intelligence assessments, including Director of National Intelligence testimony in March 2026, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, with some near-weapons-grade material reportedly buried under rubble and no structured weaponization program underway. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April 2026 led to negotiations, though demands for permanent enrichment limits remain unresolved. These developments have extended Iran's breakout timeline, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear test before the end of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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