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Politik·Iran

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Market icon
Politik·Iran

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

März 31

Dez. 31

März 31

Dez. 31

20% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
20% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 20% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 20¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 20%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Mar 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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