Market icon
Geopolitik·Belohnungen 50, 4,5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

Market icon
Geopolitik·Belohnungen 50, 4,5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

Apr. 5

Apr. 5

35-39 30%

20-24 22%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

Polymarket
NEU

$16,890 Vol.

35-39 30%

20-24 22%

25-29 20%

30-34 19%

Polymarket
NEU

$16,890 Vol.

<10

$2,133 Vol.

1%

10-14

$1,763 Vol.

1%

15-19

$2,003 Vol.

7%

20-24

$1,863 Vol.

22%

25-29

$1,898 Vol.

20%

30-34

$1,872 Vol.

19%

35-39

$2,903 Vol.

30%

40-44

$1,302 Vol.

3%

45+

$2,577 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$16,890
Enddatum
5. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$16,890
Enddatum
5. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „35-39" mit 30%, gefolgt von „20-24" mit 22%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 30¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $16.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 30, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)" ist „35-39" mit 30%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „20-24" mit 22%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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