Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente since Saudi Arabia and Iran's China-brokered reconciliation in March 2023, which has boosted bilateral trade to $6 billion annually. Recent Israel strikes on October 26 elicited condemnations and restraint calls from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, prioritizing economic stability amid Houthi Red Sea disruptions that have inflated shipping costs by 40% without triggering direct escalation. Brent crude (~$71/bbl) embeds a muted geopolitical risk premium, supported by open channels ahead of U.S. election outcomes and OPEC+ December meeting, which could further temper adventurism given Gulf reliance on steady oil demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
18%
April 30
25%
$118 Vol.
April 15
$94 Vol.
18%
April 30
$24 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente since Saudi Arabia and Iran's China-brokered reconciliation in March 2023, which has boosted bilateral trade to $6 billion annually. Recent Israel strikes on October 26 elicited condemnations and restraint calls from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, prioritizing economic stability amid Houthi Red Sea disruptions that have inflated shipping costs by 40% without triggering direct escalation. Brent crude (~$71/bbl) embeds a muted geopolitical risk premium, supported by open channels ahead of U.S. election outcomes and OPEC+ December meeting, which could further temper adventurism given Gulf reliance on steady oil demand.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volumen
$118Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente since Saudi Arabia and Iran's China-brokered reconciliation in March 2023, which has boosted bilateral trade to $6 billion annually. Recent Israel strikes on October 26 elicited condemnations and restraint calls from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, prioritizing economic stability amid Houthi Red Sea disruptions that have inflated shipping costs by 40% without triggering direct escalation. Brent crude (~$71/bbl) embeds a muted geopolitical risk premium, supported by open channels ahead of U.S. election outcomes and OPEC+ December meeting, which could further temper adventurism given Gulf reliance on steady oil demand.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$118Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by sustained diplomatic détente since Saudi Arabia and Iran's China-brokered reconciliation in March 2023, which has boosted bilateral trade to $6 billion annually. Recent Israel strikes on October 26 elicited condemnations and restraint calls from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, prioritizing economic stability amid Houthi Red Sea disruptions that have inflated shipping costs by 40% without triggering direct escalation. Brent crude (~$71/bbl) embeds a muted geopolitical risk premium, supported by open channels ahead of U.S. election outcomes and OPEC+ December meeting, which could further temper adventurism given Gulf reliance on steady oil demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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