US military pressure on Cuba intensified after the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela halted Venezuelan oil shipments and the Trump administration imposed a fuel blockade plus tariffs on third-country suppliers, triggering acute shortages, blackouts, and economic strain. Contingency planning has included naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations, and Pentagon reviews of options ranging from limited airstrikes to larger air assaults. Officials have issued public warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions, unsealed indictments against Raúl Castro, and conducted intelligence signaling via CIA channels. These steps, alongside Trump statements framing Cuba as a follow-on priority, shape trader assessments of strike probabilities by late 2026, though ongoing Iran commitments, negotiation tracks, and domestic political risks introduce substantial uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Militäraktion gegen Kuba durch...?
US-Militäraktion gegen Kuba durch...?
$7,097,384 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
31. Dezember
28%
$7,097,384 Vol.
31. Dezember
$4,918,279 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military pressure on Cuba intensified after the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela halted Venezuelan oil shipments and the Trump administration imposed a fuel blockade plus tariffs on third-country suppliers, triggering acute shortages, blackouts, and economic strain. Contingency planning has included naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations, and Pentagon reviews of options ranging from limited airstrikes to larger air assaults. Officials have issued public warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions, unsealed indictments against Raúl Castro, and conducted intelligence signaling via CIA channels. These steps, alongside Trump statements framing Cuba as a follow-on priority, shape trader assessments of strike probabilities by late 2026, though ongoing Iran commitments, negotiation tracks, and domestic political risks introduce substantial uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volumen
$7,097,384Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military pressure on Cuba intensified after the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela halted Venezuelan oil shipments and the Trump administration imposed a fuel blockade plus tariffs on third-country suppliers, triggering acute shortages, blackouts, and economic strain. Contingency planning has included naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations, and Pentagon reviews of options ranging from limited airstrikes to larger air assaults. Officials have issued public warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions, unsealed indictments against Raúl Castro, and conducted intelligence signaling via CIA channels. These steps, alongside Trump statements framing Cuba as a follow-on priority, shape trader assessments of strike probabilities by late 2026, though ongoing Iran commitments, negotiation tracks, and domestic political risks introduce substantial uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$7,097,384Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military pressure on Cuba intensified after the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela halted Venezuelan oil shipments and the Trump administration imposed a fuel blockade plus tariffs on third-country suppliers, triggering acute shortages, blackouts, and economic strain. Contingency planning has included naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations, and Pentagon reviews of options ranging from limited airstrikes to larger air assaults. Officials have issued public warnings against Cuban arms acquisitions, unsealed indictments against Raúl Castro, and conducted intelligence signaling via CIA channels. These steps, alongside Trump statements framing Cuba as a follow-on priority, shape trader assessments of strike probabilities by late 2026, though ongoing Iran commitments, negotiation tracks, and domestic political risks introduce substantial uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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