Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?
Geopolitik·Waffenruhe Im Iran

Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?

icon for Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?
Geopolitik·Waffenruhe Im Iran

Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?

$8,448,775 Vol.

30. Sep. 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,775 Vol.

Polymarket

30. September

$261,314 Vol.

1%

31. Dezember

$225,668 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains control over security zones in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement that ties any phased IDF redeployment to verifiable disarmament and dismantlement of Hezbollah infrastructure by the Lebanese Armed Forces in designated pilot zones. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated there is no fixed timetable and that forces will remain until threats from Hezbollah are eliminated, with only limited withdrawals from two small areas approved so far. Recent IDF operations, including destruction of Hezbollah tunnels near Ali al-Taher Ridge in September 2026, have consolidated positions without altering the broader security zone. Scheduled follow-up talks were postponed to October amid ongoing strikes and Lebanese demands for full withdrawal and reconstruction, while Hezbollah continues to reject the accord. These conditions shape trader consensus around low probabilities for near-term full withdrawal beyond the Litani River.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$8,448,775
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains control over security zones in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement that ties any phased IDF redeployment to verifiable disarmament and dismantlement of Hezbollah infrastructure by the Lebanese Armed Forces in designated pilot zones. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated there is no fixed timetable and that forces will remain until threats from Hezbollah are eliminated, with only limited withdrawals from two small areas approved so far. Recent IDF operations, including destruction of Hezbollah tunnels near Ali al-Taher Ridge in September 2026, have consolidated positions without altering the broader security zone. Scheduled follow-up talks were postponed to October amid ongoing strikes and Lebanese demands for full withdrawal and reconstruction, while Hezbollah continues to reject the accord. These conditions shape trader consensus around low probabilities for near-term full withdrawal beyond the Litani River.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$8,448,775
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

icon for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

16%
icon for Israels Streitkräfte rücken bis zum 30. September in Beirut ein?

Israels Streitkräfte rücken bis zum 30. September in Beirut ein?

2%
Ja
icon for Dringen israelische Streitkräfte bis zum 31. Dezember in Nabatieh ein?

Dringen israelische Streitkräfte bis zum 31. Dezember in Nabatieh ein?

49%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Dezember" mit 6%, gefolgt von „30. September" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 6¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 6% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $8.4 million generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 16, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" ist „31. Dezember" mit nur 6%, dicht gefolgt von „30. September" mit 1%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel zieht sich aus dem Libanon zurück bis...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.