China’s 2026 GDP growth market centers on the 4.0–5.0% range because most forecasters, including BofA, ING, HSBC, and the IMF, project expansion near 4.4–4.6% for the full year. This aligns with the government’s 4.5–5.0% target set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and March policy statements. First-half data showed 4.7% growth overall, with Q1 at 5.0% supported by exports and high-tech manufacturing before Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. Recent tariff reductions have eased external pressures and sustained export momentum in AI-related and green-energy goods, while incremental fiscal measures—including a 4% deficit target and targeted consumption support—limit downside risks. These factors anchor trader consensus within the moderate band, as structural headwinds persist but policy responses and external demand provide a buffer.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.8%
9,0 %+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0 % 1.1%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
30. Jan. 2027
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
90%
5,0–6,0 %
6%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
1%
4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.8%
9,0 %+ 1.4%
8,0–9,0 % 1.1%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
30. Jan. 2027
<1,0 %
$68,051 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$222,330 Vol.
90%
5,0–6,0 %
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6,0-7,0 %
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$54,234 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$116,748 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth market centers on the 4.0–5.0% range because most forecasters, including BofA, ING, HSBC, and the IMF, project expansion near 4.4–4.6% for the full year. This aligns with the government’s 4.5–5.0% target set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and March policy statements. First-half data showed 4.7% growth overall, with Q1 at 5.0% supported by exports and high-tech manufacturing before Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. Recent tariff reductions have eased external pressures and sustained export momentum in AI-related and green-energy goods, while incremental fiscal measures—including a 4% deficit target and targeted consumption support—limit downside risks. These factors anchor trader consensus within the moderate band, as structural headwinds persist but policy responses and external demand provide a buffer.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$898,218Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth market centers on the 4.0–5.0% range because most forecasters, including BofA, ING, HSBC, and the IMF, project expansion near 4.4–4.6% for the full year. This aligns with the government’s 4.5–5.0% target set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and March policy statements. First-half data showed 4.7% growth overall, with Q1 at 5.0% supported by exports and high-tech manufacturing before Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. Recent tariff reductions have eased external pressures and sustained export momentum in AI-related and green-energy goods, while incremental fiscal measures—including a 4% deficit target and targeted consumption support—limit downside risks. These factors anchor trader consensus within the moderate band, as structural headwinds persist but policy responses and external demand provide a buffer.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$898,218Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 GDP growth market centers on the 4.0–5.0% range because most forecasters, including BofA, ING, HSBC, and the IMF, project expansion near 4.4–4.6% for the full year. This aligns with the government’s 4.5–5.0% target set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and March policy statements. First-half data showed 4.7% growth overall, with Q1 at 5.0% supported by exports and high-tech manufacturing before Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. Recent tariff reductions have eased external pressures and sustained export momentum in AI-related and green-energy goods, while incremental fiscal measures—including a 4% deficit target and targeted consumption support—limit downside risks. These factors anchor trader consensus within the moderate band, as structural headwinds persist but policy responses and external demand provide a buffer.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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