China’s 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.8 percent. Export resilience, particularly in technology-intensive goods tied to global AI investment cycles, continues to offset subdued domestic demand, weak retail sales, and ongoing property sector contraction. Recent quarterly data showed sequential softening in industrial output and fixed-asset investment through the third quarter, increasing expectations for incremental fiscal stimulus and targeted monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China. Major projections from the World Bank, IMF, and private analysts have remained steady in the 4–5 percent band despite these imbalances, with upside risks limited to stronger-than-anticipated high-tech capital spending and downside risks centered on external demand or further domestic weakness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.9%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0 % 1.0%
$900,170 Vol.
$900,170 Vol.
30. Jan. 2027
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
90%
5,0–6,0 %
6%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
1%
4,0–5,0 % 90%
5,0–6,0 % 5.9%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0 % 1.0%
$900,170 Vol.
$900,170 Vol.
30. Jan. 2027
<1,0 %
$68,058 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$223,012 Vol.
90%
5,0–6,0 %
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6,0-7,0 %
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$54,761 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$117,484 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.8 percent. Export resilience, particularly in technology-intensive goods tied to global AI investment cycles, continues to offset subdued domestic demand, weak retail sales, and ongoing property sector contraction. Recent quarterly data showed sequential softening in industrial output and fixed-asset investment through the third quarter, increasing expectations for incremental fiscal stimulus and targeted monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China. Major projections from the World Bank, IMF, and private analysts have remained steady in the 4–5 percent band despite these imbalances, with upside risks limited to stronger-than-anticipated high-tech capital spending and downside risks centered on external demand or further domestic weakness.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$900,170Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.8 percent. Export resilience, particularly in technology-intensive goods tied to global AI investment cycles, continues to offset subdued domestic demand, weak retail sales, and ongoing property sector contraction. Recent quarterly data showed sequential softening in industrial output and fixed-asset investment through the third quarter, increasing expectations for incremental fiscal stimulus and targeted monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China. Major projections from the World Bank, IMF, and private analysts have remained steady in the 4–5 percent band despite these imbalances, with upside risks limited to stronger-than-anticipated high-tech capital spending and downside risks centered on external demand or further domestic weakness.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$900,170Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.8 percent. Export resilience, particularly in technology-intensive goods tied to global AI investment cycles, continues to offset subdued domestic demand, weak retail sales, and ongoing property sector contraction. Recent quarterly data showed sequential softening in industrial output and fixed-asset investment through the third quarter, increasing expectations for incremental fiscal stimulus and targeted monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China. Major projections from the World Bank, IMF, and private analysts have remained steady in the 4–5 percent band despite these imbalances, with upside risks limited to stronger-than-anticipated high-tech capital spending and downside risks centered on external demand or further domestic weakness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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