Strong consensus forecasts from the CBO, OECD, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding roughly 2.0–2.3% for full-year 2026, supported by the latest BEA data showing 2.1% growth in Q1 and a 1.5% annualized advance in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. This trajectory reflects a shift toward investment-led expansion, stable labor markets, and productivity gains that outweigh headwinds from tariffs and moderating fiscal support. Trader-implied odds near 96% for positive growth embed these fundamentals while acknowledging limited downside risks, such as sharper policy-induced trade disruptions or unexpected energy shocks that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce an annual contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
4% Chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
Ja
4% Chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the CBO, OECD, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding roughly 2.0–2.3% for full-year 2026, supported by the latest BEA data showing 2.1% growth in Q1 and a 1.5% annualized advance in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. This trajectory reflects a shift toward investment-led expansion, stable labor markets, and productivity gains that outweigh headwinds from tariffs and moderating fiscal support. Trader-implied odds near 96% for positive growth embed these fundamentals while acknowledging limited downside risks, such as sharper policy-induced trade disruptions or unexpected energy shocks that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce an annual contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$32,234Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the CBO, OECD, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding roughly 2.0–2.3% for full-year 2026, supported by the latest BEA data showing 2.1% growth in Q1 and a 1.5% annualized advance in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. This trajectory reflects a shift toward investment-led expansion, stable labor markets, and productivity gains that outweigh headwinds from tariffs and moderating fiscal support. Trader-implied odds near 96% for positive growth embed these fundamentals while acknowledging limited downside risks, such as sharper policy-induced trade disruptions or unexpected energy shocks that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce an annual contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$32,234Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from the CBO, OECD, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding roughly 2.0–2.3% for full-year 2026, supported by the latest BEA data showing 2.1% growth in Q1 and a 1.5% annualized advance in Q2 amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. This trajectory reflects a shift toward investment-led expansion, stable labor markets, and productivity gains that outweigh headwinds from tariffs and moderating fiscal support. Trader-implied odds near 96% for positive growth embed these fundamentals while acknowledging limited downside risks, such as sharper policy-induced trade disruptions or unexpected energy shocks that could tip quarterly readings negative enough to produce an annual contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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