Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by gains in business investment, exports, and consumer spending. Major projections, including the CBO’s 2.2% full-year estimate and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 2.5% outlook, reflect fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures alongside resilient labor markets, outweighing headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy costs. Traders price in this positive baseline while monitoring the June 25 final Q1 release and upcoming inflation prints for any material downside revisions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
Ja
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by gains in business investment, exports, and consumer spending. Major projections, including the CBO’s 2.2% full-year estimate and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 2.5% outlook, reflect fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures alongside resilient labor markets, outweighing headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy costs. Traders price in this positive baseline while monitoring the June 25 final Q1 release and upcoming inflation prints for any material downside revisions.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$27,739Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by gains in business investment, exports, and consumer spending. Major projections, including the CBO’s 2.2% full-year estimate and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 2.5% outlook, reflect fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures alongside resilient labor markets, outweighing headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy costs. Traders price in this positive baseline while monitoring the June 25 final Q1 release and upcoming inflation prints for any material downside revisions.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$27,739Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by gains in business investment, exports, and consumer spending. Major projections, including the CBO’s 2.2% full-year estimate and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 2.5% outlook, reflect fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures alongside resilient labor markets, outweighing headwinds such as tariffs and elevated energy costs. Traders price in this positive baseline while monitoring the June 25 final Q1 release and upcoming inflation prints for any material downside revisions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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