Recent U.S. inflation data, with April CPI rising to 3.8% and May expected near 4.2% amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.62%, with futures markets pricing a modest upward path to around 3.8% by year-end if price pressures persist. A resilient labor market and above-target inflation have prompted traders to abandon near-term cut expectations, though growth forecasts and the June 16-17 FOMC projections could shift sentiment. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI and subsequent labor data, may clarify whether the Fed maintains its current stance or signals tighter policy later in the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,584,340 Vol.
$1,584,340 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,584,340 Vol.
$1,584,340 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. inflation data, with April CPI rising to 3.8% and May expected near 4.2% amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.62%, with futures markets pricing a modest upward path to around 3.8% by year-end if price pressures persist. A resilient labor market and above-target inflation have prompted traders to abandon near-term cut expectations, though growth forecasts and the June 16-17 FOMC projections could shift sentiment. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI and subsequent labor data, may clarify whether the Fed maintains its current stance or signals tighter policy later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,584,340Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. inflation data, with April CPI rising to 3.8% and May expected near 4.2% amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.62%, with futures markets pricing a modest upward path to around 3.8% by year-end if price pressures persist. A resilient labor market and above-target inflation have prompted traders to abandon near-term cut expectations, though growth forecasts and the June 16-17 FOMC projections could shift sentiment. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI and subsequent labor data, may clarify whether the Fed maintains its current stance or signals tighter policy later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,584,360Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. inflation data, with April CPI rising to 3.8% and May expected near 4.2% amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.62%, with futures markets pricing a modest upward path to around 3.8% by year-end if price pressures persist. A resilient labor market and above-target inflation have prompted traders to abandon near-term cut expectations, though growth forecasts and the June 16-17 FOMC projections could shift sentiment. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI and subsequent labor data, may clarify whether the Fed maintains its current stance or signals tighter policy later in the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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