Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply shocks, remains the dominant factor supporting a 66.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% following the July FOMC hold, where three dissents favored immediate tightening amid PCE inflation readings near 4%. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and solid GDP expansion have reinforced trader views that policy may need to stay restrictive longer than earlier 2026 cut expectations. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, represent key catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation moderates or geopolitical pressures ease.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$6,085,381 Vol.
$6,085,381 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$6,085,381 Vol.
$6,085,381 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply shocks, remains the dominant factor supporting a 66.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% following the July FOMC hold, where three dissents favored immediate tightening amid PCE inflation readings near 4%. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and solid GDP expansion have reinforced trader views that policy may need to stay restrictive longer than earlier 2026 cut expectations. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, represent key catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation moderates or geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$6,085,381Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply shocks, remains the dominant factor supporting a 66.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% following the July FOMC hold, where three dissents favored immediate tightening amid PCE inflation readings near 4%. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and solid GDP expansion have reinforced trader views that policy may need to stay restrictive longer than earlier 2026 cut expectations. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, represent key catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation moderates or geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,085,381Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply shocks, remains the dominant factor supporting a 66.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% following the July FOMC hold, where three dissents favored immediate tightening amid PCE inflation readings near 4%. A resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and solid GDP expansion have reinforced trader views that policy may need to stay restrictive longer than earlier 2026 cut expectations. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, represent key catalysts that could shift consensus if inflation moderates or geopolitical pressures ease.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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