Elevated inflation readings driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy firming. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh in place, CME FedWatch tools now price roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, though the June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold steady. Market-implied odds of 60.5% against any 2026 hike reflect the view that data-dependent restraint and anchored long-term expectations may keep the Fed on hold, tempered by upside inflation risks that could prompt tightening if price pressures persist.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,765,084 Vol.
$1,765,084 Vol.
Ja
$1,765,084 Vol.
$1,765,084 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation readings driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy firming. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh in place, CME FedWatch tools now price roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, though the June 17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold steady. Market-implied odds of 60.5% against any 2026 hike reflect the view that data-dependent restraint and anchored long-term expectations may keep the Fed on hold, tempered by upside inflation risks that could prompt tightening if price pressures persist.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen