Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes, combined with resilient labor market data including solid May payroll gains, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to hold steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range through 2026. Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a hike reflect consensus that current restrictive policy remains appropriate given upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI releases represent near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if labor market indicators weaken materially.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,879,480 Vol.
$1,879,480 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,879,480 Vol.
$1,879,480 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes, combined with resilient labor market data including solid May payroll gains, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to hold steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range through 2026. Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a hike reflect consensus that current restrictive policy remains appropriate given upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI releases represent near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if labor market indicators weaken materially.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,879,480Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes, combined with resilient labor market data including solid May payroll gains, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to hold steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range through 2026. Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a hike reflect consensus that current restrictive policy remains appropriate given upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI releases represent near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if labor market indicators weaken materially.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,879,880Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes, combined with resilient labor market data including solid May payroll gains, has anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate to hold steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range through 2026. Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a hike reflect consensus that current restrictive policy remains appropriate given upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and incoming CPI releases represent near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or if labor market indicators weaken materially.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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