**Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market underpin the 63.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026.** May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 172,000. These releases have shifted futures and prediction-market pricing toward fewer or no cuts this year and have introduced modest odds of hikes later in 2026, though the median path still favors holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The upcoming June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is priced at over 99% for no change, with the next key catalysts being June CPI, labor data, and any revisions to the dot plot. Traders view the current data as anchoring policy on hold rather than prompting immediate tightening, given anchored long-term expectations and the absence of broad-based price pressures beyond energy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market underpin the 63.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026.** May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 172,000. These releases have shifted futures and prediction-market pricing toward fewer or no cuts this year and have introduced modest odds of hikes later in 2026, though the median path still favors holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The upcoming June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is priced at over 99% for no change, with the next key catalysts being June CPI, labor data, and any revisions to the dot plot. Traders view the current data as anchoring policy on hold rather than prompting immediate tightening, given anchored long-term expectations and the absence of broad-based price pressures beyond energy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,917,624Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market underpin the 63.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026.** May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 172,000. These releases have shifted futures and prediction-market pricing toward fewer or no cuts this year and have introduced modest odds of hikes later in 2026, though the median path still favors holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The upcoming June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is priced at over 99% for no change, with the next key catalysts being June CPI, labor data, and any revisions to the dot plot. Traders view the current data as anchoring policy on hold rather than prompting immediate tightening, given anchored long-term expectations and the absence of broad-based price pressures beyond energy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,917,624Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market underpin the 63.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026.** May 2026 CPI printed at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 172,000. These releases have shifted futures and prediction-market pricing toward fewer or no cuts this year and have introduced modest odds of hikes later in 2026, though the median path still favors holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The upcoming June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is priced at over 99% for no change, with the next key catalysts being June CPI, labor data, and any revisions to the dot plot. Traders view the current data as anchoring policy on hold rather than prompting immediate tightening, given anchored long-term expectations and the absence of broad-based price pressures beyond energy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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