Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have created a near-even balance in trader pricing for any Fed rate hike in 2026, with the “No” outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added a stronger-than-expected 172,000 nonfarm payrolls, holding unemployment steady at 4.3%. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, futures markets now assign roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end per CME FedWatch data. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst that could shift the median path or reinforce the current hold stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,704,657 Vol.
$1,704,657 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,704,657 Vol.
$1,704,657 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have created a near-even balance in trader pricing for any Fed rate hike in 2026, with the “No” outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added a stronger-than-expected 172,000 nonfarm payrolls, holding unemployment steady at 4.3%. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, futures markets now assign roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end per CME FedWatch data. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst that could shift the median path or reinforce the current hold stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,704,657Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have created a near-even balance in trader pricing for any Fed rate hike in 2026, with the “No” outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added a stronger-than-expected 172,000 nonfarm payrolls, holding unemployment steady at 4.3%. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, futures markets now assign roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end per CME FedWatch data. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst that could shift the median path or reinforce the current hold stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,704,657Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have created a near-even balance in trader pricing for any Fed rate hike in 2026, with the “No” outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added a stronger-than-expected 172,000 nonfarm payrolls, holding unemployment steady at 4.3%. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, futures markets now assign roughly 66% odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end per CME FedWatch data. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot represent the immediate catalyst that could shift the median path or reinforce the current hold stance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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