Strong labor market data, including the robust May jobs report, and persistent inflation—partly tied to geopolitical tensions—have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose June 16-17 FOMC meeting marks his debut, the majority of economists now project no policy change for the remainder of the year, citing well-anchored long-term expectations and a resilient economy that lowers the urgency for tightening. While CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 66% odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, Polymarket traders appear to weigh the hold consensus and upcoming dot plot more heavily, viewing any 2026 increase as contingent on further inflation upside surprises rather than the base case.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,880,516 Vol.
$1,880,516 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,880,516 Vol.
$1,880,516 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong labor market data, including the robust May jobs report, and persistent inflation—partly tied to geopolitical tensions—have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose June 16-17 FOMC meeting marks his debut, the majority of economists now project no policy change for the remainder of the year, citing well-anchored long-term expectations and a resilient economy that lowers the urgency for tightening. While CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 66% odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, Polymarket traders appear to weigh the hold consensus and upcoming dot plot more heavily, viewing any 2026 increase as contingent on further inflation upside surprises rather than the base case.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,880,516Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong labor market data, including the robust May jobs report, and persistent inflation—partly tied to geopolitical tensions—have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose June 16-17 FOMC meeting marks his debut, the majority of economists now project no policy change for the remainder of the year, citing well-anchored long-term expectations and a resilient economy that lowers the urgency for tightening. While CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 66% odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, Polymarket traders appear to weigh the hold consensus and upcoming dot plot more heavily, viewing any 2026 increase as contingent on further inflation upside surprises rather than the base case.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,880,684Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong labor market data, including the robust May jobs report, and persistent inflation—partly tied to geopolitical tensions—have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose June 16-17 FOMC meeting marks his debut, the majority of economists now project no policy change for the remainder of the year, citing well-anchored long-term expectations and a resilient economy that lowers the urgency for tightening. While CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 66% odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, Polymarket traders appear to weigh the hold consensus and upcoming dot plot more heavily, viewing any 2026 increase as contingent on further inflation upside surprises rather than the base case.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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