Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE at 3.3% and headline CPI near 3.3% through early 2026 amid oil and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, form the core drivers keeping the implied probability of at least one 2026 rate hike at 38%. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range reflects a data-dependent stance, with futures and surveys pricing limited near-term movement but acknowledging upside risks from firmer growth. Traders weigh these factors against the possibility of inflation moderation or balanced labor conditions that could support holding rates through year-end, consistent with economist consensus favoring no change for the remainder of 2026. The June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,869,394 Vol.
$1,869,394 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,869,394 Vol.
$1,869,394 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE at 3.3% and headline CPI near 3.3% through early 2026 amid oil and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, form the core drivers keeping the implied probability of at least one 2026 rate hike at 38%. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range reflects a data-dependent stance, with futures and surveys pricing limited near-term movement but acknowledging upside risks from firmer growth. Traders weigh these factors against the possibility of inflation moderation or balanced labor conditions that could support holding rates through year-end, consistent with economist consensus favoring no change for the remainder of 2026. The June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,869,394Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE at 3.3% and headline CPI near 3.3% through early 2026 amid oil and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, form the core drivers keeping the implied probability of at least one 2026 rate hike at 38%. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range reflects a data-dependent stance, with futures and surveys pricing limited near-term movement but acknowledging upside risks from firmer growth. Traders weigh these factors against the possibility of inflation moderation or balanced labor conditions that could support holding rates through year-end, consistent with economist consensus favoring no change for the remainder of 2026. The June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,869,394Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, with core PCE at 3.3% and headline CPI near 3.3% through early 2026 amid oil and tariff effects, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains and unemployment near 4.3%, form the core drivers keeping the implied probability of at least one 2026 rate hike at 38%. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range reflects a data-dependent stance, with futures and surveys pricing limited near-term movement but acknowledging upside risks from firmer growth. Traders weigh these factors against the possibility of inflation moderation or balanced labor conditions that could support holding rates through year-end, consistent with economist consensus favoring no change for the remainder of 2026. The June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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