Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$122,398 Vol.
$122,398 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$122,398 Vol.
$122,398 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$122,398Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volumen
$122,398Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, with May CPI at 4.2% and revised PCE projections elevated, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid May job gains, underpin the 92% market-implied odds against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with economists broadly forecasting no easing through year-end amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%. Traders price limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with historical precedent that emergency cuts require acute crises rather than gradual inflation trends. A sharp geopolitical escalation triggering recessionary conditions or a sudden liquidity event could still alter this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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