The Federal Reserve held its target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% following the July 28–29 FOMC meeting in a 9–3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid reaccelerating inflation and higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. Market-implied probabilities from fed funds futures now favor holding or even raising rates by year-end rather than cutting, reversing earlier 2026 expectations for easing. Key drivers include the trajectory of CPI and PCE inflation data, labor market resilience, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s communications. Traders will focus on the August 27–29 Jackson Hole symposium and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting for signals on the policy path ahead.