Traders assign a 99.4% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its last three gatherings amid inflation readings that remain well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent data, including May 2026 CPI and steady effective funds rates near 3.62%, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over near-term easing, with futures markets pricing virtually no chance of a June cut. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that aligns with official communications signaling a data-dependent pause until inflation trends convincingly lower. A material downside surprise in upcoming employment or inflation prints, or an unexpectedly dovish shift in post-June guidance, could still introduce modest volatility, though current conditions suggest limited scope for deviation before the next major data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 99.4%
Sonstiges <1%
Pause–Pause–Senkung <1%
$1,731,447 Vol.
$1,731,447 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Sonstiges
<1%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.4%
Sonstiges <1%
Pause–Pause–Senkung <1%
$1,731,447 Vol.
$1,731,447 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$307,527 Vol.
99%
Sonstiges
$343,300 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
$335,278 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 99.4% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its last three gatherings amid inflation readings that remain well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent data, including May 2026 CPI and steady effective funds rates near 3.62%, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over near-term easing, with futures markets pricing virtually no chance of a June cut. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that aligns with official communications signaling a data-dependent pause until inflation trends convincingly lower. A material downside surprise in upcoming employment or inflation prints, or an unexpectedly dovish shift in post-June guidance, could still introduce modest volatility, though current conditions suggest limited scope for deviation before the next major data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,731,447Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign a 99.4% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its last three gatherings amid inflation readings that remain well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent data, including May 2026 CPI and steady effective funds rates near 3.62%, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over near-term easing, with futures markets pricing virtually no chance of a June cut. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that aligns with official communications signaling a data-dependent pause until inflation trends convincingly lower. A material downside surprise in upcoming employment or inflation prints, or an unexpectedly dovish shift in post-June guidance, could still introduce modest volatility, though current conditions suggest limited scope for deviation before the next major data releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,731,447Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 99.4% implied probability to a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its last three gatherings amid inflation readings that remain well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent data, including May 2026 CPI and steady effective funds rates near 3.62%, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over near-term easing, with futures markets pricing virtually no chance of a June cut. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that aligns with official communications signaling a data-dependent pause until inflation trends convincingly lower. A material downside surprise in upcoming employment or inflation prints, or an unexpectedly dovish shift in post-June guidance, could still introduce modest volatility, though current conditions suggest limited scope for deviation before the next major data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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