Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI data—where energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year—and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to maintain the 3½–3¾% target range, coupled with FOMC minutes released April 8 signaling openness to hikes amid geopolitical risks like Middle East tensions, has solidified expectations for a pause. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a surprise escalation in inflation data or global events, though traders price such risks at under 0.5% ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im April?
Fed-Entscheidung im April?
Keine Änderung 99.6%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$159,694,311 Vol.
$159,694,311 Vol.
29. Apr. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
100%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 99.6%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$159,694,311 Vol.
$159,694,311 Vol.
29. Apr. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$55,484,700 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$32,741,088 Vol.
<1%
Keine Änderung
$34,689,837 Vol.
100%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
$36,784,467 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI data—where energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year—and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to maintain the 3½–3¾% target range, coupled with FOMC minutes released April 8 signaling openness to hikes amid geopolitical risks like Middle East tensions, has solidified expectations for a pause. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a surprise escalation in inflation data or global events, though traders price such risks at under 0.5% ahead of the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$159,694,311Enddatum
29. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI data—where energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year—and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to maintain the 3½–3¾% target range, coupled with FOMC minutes released April 8 signaling openness to hikes amid geopolitical risks like Middle East tensions, has solidified expectations for a pause. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a surprise escalation in inflation data or global events, though traders price such risks at under 0.5% ahead of the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$159,694,311Enddatum
29. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from March 2026 CPI data—where energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year—and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to maintain the 3½–3¾% target range, coupled with FOMC minutes released April 8 signaling openness to hikes amid geopolitical risks like Middle East tensions, has solidified expectations for a pause. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a surprise escalation in inflation data or global events, though traders price such risks at under 0.5% ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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