Traders on Polymarket assign a 71% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. The March 18-19 FOMC statement held the fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, with Chair Powell stressing data dependence amid sticky February CPI (up 2.8% year-over-year, core 3.1%) and strong nonfarm payrolls adding 275,000 jobs. Upward revisions to prior economic data have tempered rate-cut expectations, with only 14% odds on a single cut sequence. Upcoming March PCE inflation (March 28 release) and April jobs report could reinforce the pause consensus or prompt shifts if cooler than forecast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$271 Vol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$169 Vol.
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
1%
Other
$0 Vol.
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket assign a 71% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. The March 18-19 FOMC statement held the fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, with Chair Powell stressing data dependence amid sticky February CPI (up 2.8% year-over-year, core 3.1%) and strong nonfarm payrolls adding 275,000 jobs. Upward revisions to prior economic data have tempered rate-cut expectations, with only 14% odds on a single cut sequence. Upcoming March PCE inflation (March 28 release) and April jobs report could reinforce the pause consensus or prompt shifts if cooler than forecast.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$440Enddatum
Jul 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket assign a 71% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. The March 18-19 FOMC statement held the fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, with Chair Powell stressing data dependence amid sticky February CPI (up 2.8% year-over-year, core 3.1%) and strong nonfarm payrolls adding 275,000 jobs. Upward revisions to prior economic data have tempered rate-cut expectations, with only 14% odds on a single cut sequence. Upcoming March PCE inflation (March 28 release) and April jobs report could reinforce the pause consensus or prompt shifts if cooler than forecast.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$440Enddatum
Jul 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket assign a 71% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. The March 18-19 FOMC statement held the fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, with Chair Powell stressing data dependence amid sticky February CPI (up 2.8% year-over-year, core 3.1%) and strong nonfarm payrolls adding 275,000 jobs. Upward revisions to prior economic data have tempered rate-cut expectations, with only 14% odds on a single cut sequence. Upcoming March PCE inflation (March 28 release) and April jobs report could reinforce the pause consensus or prompt shifts if cooler than forecast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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