The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges or findings of wrongdoing, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January over Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, lacked supporting evidence per court transcripts and was referred instead to the central bank's inspector general. Powell's completed term as Fed Chair in May 2026 further reduces exposure, as does his ongoing but lower-profile role as a Board governor through 2028. While tail risks such as revived politically motivated allegations or unforeseen legal developments remain possible in a charged environment, the absence of substantiated claims and institutional safeguards make such scenarios remote.