Trader consensus assigns a 95.3% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank’s deep institutional entrenchment and the high legislative thresholds required for structural change. The Fed’s statutory mandate under the Federal Reserve Act, its role in setting the federal funds rate, and broad bipartisan reliance on its monetary policy functions create formidable barriers. No credible legislative proposals or executive initiatives have advanced in recent sessions, while ongoing inflation management and labor-market oversight reinforce its operational continuity. Tail-risk scenarios, such as a severe financial crisis triggering radical reform or an unprecedented political realignment after the 2026 midterms, remain possible but lack supporting signals in current policy debates or market pricing.