Recent soft July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker jobs report, have tempered expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where CME FedWatch currently prices roughly even odds of a 25 basis point increase versus a hold. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July decision, traders weigh persistent inflation above the 2% goal against labor market cooling and reduced forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Upcoming August inflation and employment releases, plus the September policy statement, remain key swing factors that could shift market-implied rate paths for the balance of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,258,128 Vol.

September-Treffen
23%

Oktobersitzung
39%
$2,258,128 Vol.

September-Treffen
23%

Oktobersitzung
39%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent soft July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a weaker jobs report, have tempered expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where CME FedWatch currently prices roughly even odds of a 25 basis point increase versus a hold. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July decision, traders weigh persistent inflation above the 2% goal against labor market cooling and reduced forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Upcoming August inflation and employment releases, plus the September policy statement, remain key swing factors that could shift market-implied rate paths for the balance of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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