Recent fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax reductions and immediate expensing provisions, alongside robust AI-related capital spending, underpin the 46% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026. These tailwinds are partially offset by elevated tariffs, reduced immigration constraining labor supply, and higher energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions. The first-quarter 2026 GDP print of 1.6% annualized highlights the post-shutdown rebound dynamics, while professional forecaster surveys cluster around 2.2–2.5% and the Federal Reserve’s March projections align with modest above-potential expansion. Market pricing embeds these crosscurrents, with lower ranges receiving less weight amid resilient business investment and consumer demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
>2,5 % 48%
1,5–2,0 % 18.0%
2,0–2,5 % 15%
1,0–1,5 % 11.6%
$30,021 Vol.
$30,021 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
4%
0,5–1,0 %
5%
1,0–1,5 %
12%
1,5–2,0 %
18%
2,0–2,5 %
15%
>2,5 %
48%
>2,5 % 48%
1,5–2,0 % 18.0%
2,0–2,5 % 15%
1,0–1,5 % 11.6%
$30,021 Vol.
$30,021 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$4,114 Vol.
4%
0,5–1,0 %
$15,520 Vol.
5%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0 %
$1,979 Vol.
18%
2,0–2,5 %
$2,150 Vol.
15%
>2,5 %
$4,322 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax reductions and immediate expensing provisions, alongside robust AI-related capital spending, underpin the 46% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026. These tailwinds are partially offset by elevated tariffs, reduced immigration constraining labor supply, and higher energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions. The first-quarter 2026 GDP print of 1.6% annualized highlights the post-shutdown rebound dynamics, while professional forecaster surveys cluster around 2.2–2.5% and the Federal Reserve’s March projections align with modest above-potential expansion. Market pricing embeds these crosscurrents, with lower ranges receiving less weight amid resilient business investment and consumer demand.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,021Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax reductions and immediate expensing provisions, alongside robust AI-related capital spending, underpin the 46% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026. These tailwinds are partially offset by elevated tariffs, reduced immigration constraining labor supply, and higher energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions. The first-quarter 2026 GDP print of 1.6% annualized highlights the post-shutdown rebound dynamics, while professional forecaster surveys cluster around 2.2–2.5% and the Federal Reserve’s March projections align with modest above-potential expansion. Market pricing embeds these crosscurrents, with lower ranges receiving less weight amid resilient business investment and consumer demand.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,021Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax reductions and immediate expensing provisions, alongside robust AI-related capital spending, underpin the 46% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026. These tailwinds are partially offset by elevated tariffs, reduced immigration constraining labor supply, and higher energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions. The first-quarter 2026 GDP print of 1.6% annualized highlights the post-shutdown rebound dynamics, while professional forecaster surveys cluster around 2.2–2.5% and the Federal Reserve’s March projections align with modest above-potential expansion. Market pricing embeds these crosscurrents, with lower ranges receiving less weight amid resilient business investment and consumer demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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