Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% annualized, revised lower from the advance estimate and following a weak 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid a late-2025 government shutdown, has tempered near-term momentum while highlighting offsetting forces for the full-year outcome. Fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts and expensing provisions, supports consumer spending and investment, contributing to the 46.5% market-implied odds on growth above 2.5%. These effects are counterbalanced by tariff-related drags on consumption and trade, reduced immigration curbing labor supply, and elevated inflation—now near 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—which has prompted a cautious Federal Reserve stance. Cooling labor market data, with unemployment holding near 4.3-4.4%, adds downside risks that sustain meaningful probabilities across the 1.0-2.5% ranges.