Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 1.6% annualized expansion, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and rebound effects from late-2025 government disruptions, have lifted consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 real GDP growth into the 2.2–2.5% range according to sources including the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private forecasters. These developments support the leading market-implied probability for outcomes above 2.5%. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and potential energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments introduce downside risks, keeping notable probability mass on the 1.5–2.5% brackets. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and any further FOMC guidance on the policy path will likely influence near-term shifts in trader positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
>2,5 % 47%
1,5–2,0 % 18.6%
2,0–2,5 % 18%
1,0–1,5 % 12.0%
$30,011 Vol.
$30,011 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
5%
0,5–1,0 %
5%
1,0–1,5 %
12%
1,5–2,0 %
19%
2,0–2,5 %
18%
>2,5 %
47%
>2,5 % 47%
1,5–2,0 % 18.6%
2,0–2,5 % 18%
1,0–1,5 % 12.0%
$30,011 Vol.
$30,011 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$4,110 Vol.
5%
0,5–1,0 %
$15,517 Vol.
5%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0 %
$1,978 Vol.
19%
2,0–2,5 %
$2,150 Vol.
18%
>2,5 %
$4,320 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 1.6% annualized expansion, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and rebound effects from late-2025 government disruptions, have lifted consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 real GDP growth into the 2.2–2.5% range according to sources including the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private forecasters. These developments support the leading market-implied probability for outcomes above 2.5%. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and potential energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments introduce downside risks, keeping notable probability mass on the 1.5–2.5% brackets. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and any further FOMC guidance on the policy path will likely influence near-term shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,011Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 1.6% annualized expansion, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and rebound effects from late-2025 government disruptions, have lifted consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 real GDP growth into the 2.2–2.5% range according to sources including the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private forecasters. These developments support the leading market-implied probability for outcomes above 2.5%. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and potential energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments introduce downside risks, keeping notable probability mass on the 1.5–2.5% brackets. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and any further FOMC guidance on the policy path will likely influence near-term shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,011Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing a 1.6% annualized expansion, alongside fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and rebound effects from late-2025 government disruptions, have lifted consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 real GDP growth into the 2.2–2.5% range according to sources including the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private forecasters. These developments support the leading market-implied probability for outcomes above 2.5%. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and potential energy-price shocks tied to Middle East developments introduce downside risks, keeping notable probability mass on the 1.5–2.5% brackets. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and any further FOMC guidance on the policy path will likely influence near-term shifts in trader positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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