Recent ECB staff projections place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June on the back of stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and resilient domestic demand. Adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility show 1.2% growth, aligning with the market's 66% implied probability for the 1.0-2.0% outcome. Supporting factors include defense and infrastructure outlays, export recovery, and easing uncertainty, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and France's downward revision to 0.5% keep downside risks alive, reflected in the 31% odds for 0-1.0%. Traders are pricing in moderate expansion consistent with official baselines and recent data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJährliches BIP-Wachstum der Eurozone 2026
1,0-2,0 % 66%
0–1,0 % 31.4%
<0 % <1%
3,0-4,0 % <1%
$41,913 Vol.
$41,913 Vol.
<0 %
<1%
0–1,0 %
31%
1,0-2,0 %
66%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0–5,0 %
<1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0–7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
1,0-2,0 % 66%
0–1,0 % 31.4%
<0 % <1%
3,0-4,0 % <1%
$41,913 Vol.
$41,913 Vol.
<0 %
<1%
0–1,0 %
31%
1,0-2,0 %
66%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0–5,0 %
<1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0–7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June on the back of stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and resilient domestic demand. Adjusted measures excluding Irish volatility show 1.2% growth, aligning with the market's 66% implied probability for the 1.0-2.0% outcome. Supporting factors include defense and infrastructure outlays, export recovery, and easing uncertainty, though elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and France's downward revision to 0.5% keep downside risks alive, reflected in the 31% odds for 0-1.0%. Traders are pricing in moderate expansion consistent with official baselines and recent data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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