Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, below consensus of 55.2 and down from July’s 55.6 peak, has introduced uncertainty into September expectations by highlighting moderating new orders at 53.7 and persistent price pressures at 71.1 amid tariffs and Middle East supply disruptions. Trader consensus remains fragmented across mid-50 ranges because production held near 58 while employment eased to 51.2, leaving room for either stabilization above 55 or further cooling toward the low 50s depending on order pipelines and inventory dynamics ahead of the October 1 release. These closely matched implied probabilities underscore the market’s assessment of balanced risks around ongoing expansion.