Recent U.S. labor market data, including elevated initial jobless claims and softening ADP private payroll figures through August 2026, have tilted trader consensus toward modest September nonfarm payroll gains clustered in the 50,000–150,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect expectations of continued cooling consistent with prior revisions to July and August employment prints, alongside steady but not accelerating wage growth that keeps inflation pressures contained. Key swing factors include the upcoming September jobs report itself, scheduled for early October, and any interim signals from JOLTS openings or weekly claims that could shift the distribution between the leading 50k–100k and 100k–150k brackets. With probabilities tightly bunched, outcomes hinge on whether hiring stabilizes near trend or decelerates further amid higher-for-longer policy rates and moderating consumer demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Arbeitsplätze wurden im September hinzugefügt?
Wie viele Arbeitsplätze wurden im September hinzugefügt?
50.000 bis 100.000 26%
100.000 bis 150.000 22%
0 bis 50.000 20%
-50k bis 0 11%
<-50k
9%
-50k bis 0
11%
0 bis 50.000
20%
50.000 bis 100.000
26%
100.000 bis 150.000
22%
150.000 bis 200.000
5%
200.000+
5%
50.000 bis 100.000 26%
100.000 bis 150.000 22%
0 bis 50.000 20%
-50k bis 0 11%
<-50k
9%
-50k bis 0
11%
0 bis 50.000
20%
50.000 bis 100.000
26%
100.000 bis 150.000
22%
150.000 bis 200.000
5%
200.000+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Markt eröffnet: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market data, including elevated initial jobless claims and softening ADP private payroll figures through August 2026, have tilted trader consensus toward modest September nonfarm payroll gains clustered in the 50,000–150,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect expectations of continued cooling consistent with prior revisions to July and August employment prints, alongside steady but not accelerating wage growth that keeps inflation pressures contained. Key swing factors include the upcoming September jobs report itself, scheduled for early October, and any interim signals from JOLTS openings or weekly claims that could shift the distribution between the leading 50k–100k and 100k–150k brackets. With probabilities tightly bunched, outcomes hinge on whether hiring stabilizes near trend or decelerates further amid higher-for-longer policy rates and moderating consumer demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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