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Economy·Jobs

September Arbeitslosenquote

icon for September Arbeitslosenquote
Economy·Jobs

September Arbeitslosenquote

Okt. 2

Okt. 2

4,1 % 30%

4,2 % 26%

4,0 % 16%

4,3 % 12%

Polymarket
NEU

4,1 % 30%

4,2 % 26%

4,0 % 16%

4,3 % 12%

Polymarket
NEU

≤3,8 %

$585 Vol.

5%

3,9 %

$105 Vol.

8%

4,0 %

$62 Vol.

16%

4,1 %

$442 Vol.

30%

4,2 %

$84 Vol.

26%

4,3 %

$62 Vol.

12%

4,4 %

$176 Vol.

5%

4,5 %

$505 Vol.

9%

≥4,6 %

$505 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for the September U3 rate near current levels. The labor force participation rate rebound to 61.6% and employment gains of 569,000 in the household survey reflect resilient demand amid subdued hiring trends, while low layoff activity and a U-6 measure easing to 7.7% signal contained slack. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.0–4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against potential offsets from policy uncertainty, slower labor-force growth, and upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions that could shift rate-path views. The September figure, due October 2, will clarify whether the recent participation surge sustains or reverses.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$2,527
Enddatum
2. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, anchors trader expectations for the September U3 rate near current levels. The labor force participation rate rebound to 61.6% and employment gains of 569,000 in the household survey reflect resilient demand amid subdued hiring trends, while low layoff activity and a U-6 measure easing to 7.7% signal contained slack. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.0–4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against potential offsets from policy uncertainty, slower labor-force growth, and upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions that could shift rate-path views. The September figure, due October 2, will clarify whether the recent participation surge sustains or reverses.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$2,527
Enddatum
2. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die US-Arbeitslosenquote im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,0 % erreichen?

Wird die US-Arbeitslosenquote im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,0 % erreichen?

8%
Ja
icon for Wird die US-Wirtschaft im September zwischen 50.000 und 100.000 Arbeitsplätze schaffen?

Wird die US-Wirtschaft im September zwischen 50.000 und 100.000 Arbeitsplätze schaffen?

24%
Ja
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Wird die monatliche Inflation im August um 0,4 % steigen?

48%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„September Arbeitslosenquote" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „4,1 %" mit 30%, gefolgt von „4,2 %" mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 30¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„September Arbeitslosenquote" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 4, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „September Arbeitslosenquote" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „September Arbeitslosenquote" ist „4,1 %" mit 30%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4,2 %" mit 26%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „September Arbeitslosenquote" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.