Yabloko, Russia's longstanding liberal opposition party, remains far below the 5% threshold required for proportional representation in the State Duma according to available polling and historical results. Nationwide surveys, including VTsIOM data from early 2026, place its support around 3%, consistent with its 1.3% share in the 2021 elections. Extensive administrative measures—including candidate disqualifications, fines, raids, and foreign-agent designations affecting dozens of members—have further constrained its campaign operations ahead of the September 18–20 vote. While the Central Election Commission registered its federal list in late July and the party draws modestly higher consideration in major cities among younger voters on an anti-war platform, national-level backing shows no material shift sufficient to overcome structural barriers and low baseline turnout potential. Trader consensus therefore heavily favors the party falling short once more.