Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by December 31, 2026, edging out $6,500–$7,000 (23%) and $7,000–$7,500 (22%) amid closely contested lower-range outcomes from the current ~7,230 level. This bearish tilt stems from JPMorgan's recent year-end target slash to 7,200 citing recession risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East conflicts, which threaten consumer spending and reignite inflation pressures despite March CPI core rising just 0.2%. Countering this, robust Q1 earnings—impressive beats from 63% of reporting S&P firms—and resilient AI sector momentum bolster mid-range bins. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 12 and the next FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations could pivot sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWas wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
Was wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
Unter 6.000 31%
6.500–7.000 30%
$7.000–$7.500 23%
$6.000-$6.500 16%
$22,233 Vol.
$22,233 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
31%
$6.000-$6.500
16%
6.500–7.000
22%
$7.000–$7.500
23%
$7.500–$8.000
11%
>8.000 $
8%
Unter 6.000 31%
6.500–7.000 30%
$7.000–$7.500 23%
$6.000-$6.500 16%
$22,233 Vol.
$22,233 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
$13,455 Vol.
31%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,409 Vol.
16%
6.500–7.000
$2,287 Vol.
22%
$7.000–$7.500
$1,072 Vol.
23%
$7.500–$8.000
$1,825 Vol.
11%
>8.000 $
$2,184 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by December 31, 2026, edging out $6,500–$7,000 (23%) and $7,000–$7,500 (22%) amid closely contested lower-range outcomes from the current ~7,230 level. This bearish tilt stems from JPMorgan's recent year-end target slash to 7,200 citing recession risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East conflicts, which threaten consumer spending and reignite inflation pressures despite March CPI core rising just 0.2%. Countering this, robust Q1 earnings—impressive beats from 63% of reporting S&P firms—and resilient AI sector momentum bolster mid-range bins. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 12 and the next FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations could pivot sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$22,233Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by December 31, 2026, edging out $6,500–$7,000 (23%) and $7,000–$7,500 (22%) amid closely contested lower-range outcomes from the current ~7,230 level. This bearish tilt stems from JPMorgan's recent year-end target slash to 7,200 citing recession risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East conflicts, which threaten consumer spending and reignite inflation pressures despite March CPI core rising just 0.2%. Countering this, robust Q1 earnings—impressive beats from 63% of reporting S&P firms—and resilient AI sector momentum bolster mid-range bins. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 12 and the next FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations could pivot sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$22,233Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 30.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by December 31, 2026, edging out $6,500–$7,000 (23%) and $7,000–$7,500 (22%) amid closely contested lower-range outcomes from the current ~7,230 level. This bearish tilt stems from JPMorgan's recent year-end target slash to 7,200 citing recession risks from surging oil prices tied to Middle East conflicts, which threaten consumer spending and reignite inflation pressures despite March CPI core rising just 0.2%. Countering this, robust Q1 earnings—impressive beats from 63% of reporting S&P firms—and resilient AI sector momentum bolster mid-range bins. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 12 and the next FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations could pivot sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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