OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra after evaluations flagged potential “critical” cyber capabilities under its Preparedness Framework remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market odds. Traders see this safety-driven slowdown—requiring expanded robustness testing before any deployment—as the main source of uncertainty, with no confirmed release window and the model still in active development. Competitive pressure from rival labs and OpenAI’s history of timeline slippage add to the contest, while the slight edge for “not released by November 1” reflects skepticism that safeguards can be finalized quickly enough for an imminent launch. Key swing factors include the pace of ongoing cybersecurity assessments and any public statements on revised timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNicht bis zum 1. November veröffentlicht 41%
7.–13. September 39%
31. August–6. September 38%
14.–20. September 38%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
Vor dem 31. August
38%
31. August–6. September
38%
7.–13. September
39%
14.–20. September
38%
21.–27. September
38%
28. September–4. Oktober
38%
5.–11. Oktober
38%
12.–18. Oktober
38%
19.–25. Oktober
38%
26. Oktober–1. November
38%
Nicht bis zum 1. November veröffentlicht
41%
Nicht bis zum 1. November veröffentlicht 41%
7.–13. September 39%
31. August–6. September 38%
14.–20. September 38%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
Vor dem 31. August
$0 Vol.
38%
31. August–6. September
$0 Vol.
38%
7.–13. September
$0 Vol.
39%
14.–20. September
$0 Vol.
38%
21.–27. September
$0 Vol.
38%
28. September–4. Oktober
$0 Vol.
38%
5.–11. Oktober
$0 Vol.
38%
12.–18. Oktober
$0 Vol.
38%
19.–25. Oktober
$0 Vol.
38%
26. Oktober–1. November
$0 Vol.
38%
Nicht bis zum 1. November veröffentlicht
$0 Vol.
41%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra after evaluations flagged potential “critical” cyber capabilities under its Preparedness Framework remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market odds. Traders see this safety-driven slowdown—requiring expanded robustness testing before any deployment—as the main source of uncertainty, with no confirmed release window and the model still in active development. Competitive pressure from rival labs and OpenAI’s history of timeline slippage add to the contest, while the slight edge for “not released by November 1” reflects skepticism that safeguards can be finalized quickly enough for an imminent launch. Key swing factors include the pace of ongoing cybersecurity assessments and any public statements on revised timelines.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra after evaluations flagged potential “critical” cyber capabilities under its Preparedness Framework remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market odds. Traders see this safety-driven slowdown—requiring expanded robustness testing before any deployment—as the main source of uncertainty, with no confirmed release window and the model still in active development. Competitive pressure from rival labs and OpenAI’s history of timeline slippage add to the contest, while the slight edge for “not released by November 1” reflects skepticism that safeguards can be finalized quickly enough for an imminent launch. Key swing factors include the pace of ongoing cybersecurity assessments and any public statements on revised timelines.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra after evaluations flagged potential “critical” cyber capabilities under its Preparedness Framework remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered market odds. Traders see this safety-driven slowdown—requiring expanded robustness testing before any deployment—as the main source of uncertainty, with no confirmed release window and the model still in active development. Competitive pressure from rival labs and OpenAI’s history of timeline slippage add to the contest, while the slight edge for “not released by November 1” reflects skepticism that safeguards can be finalized quickly enough for an imminent launch. Key swing factors include the pace of ongoing cybersecurity assessments and any public statements on revised timelines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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