Tesla's Cybercab production has begun at Giga Texas with initial units rolling out earlier in 2026, yet traders assign an 84% probability against retail sales at $30,000 or below by year-end primarily due to persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving software validation and regulatory approvals needed for commercial robotaxi operations. Large-scale manufacturing ramps and fleet deployment remain gated behind FSD version 15 expectations in late 2026 or beyond, while early vehicles prioritize internal testing over priced customer deliveries. Upcoming catalysts include software milestone releases, Texas and California permitting decisions, and any official pricing or volume production updates that could clarify whether the original sub-$30,000 target holds for actual sales this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production has begun at Giga Texas with initial units rolling out earlier in 2026, yet traders assign an 84% probability against retail sales at $30,000 or below by year-end primarily due to persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving software validation and regulatory approvals needed for commercial robotaxi operations. Large-scale manufacturing ramps and fleet deployment remain gated behind FSD version 15 expectations in late 2026 or beyond, while early vehicles prioritize internal testing over priced customer deliveries. Upcoming catalysts include software milestone releases, Texas and California permitting decisions, and any official pricing or volume production updates that could clarify whether the original sub-$30,000 target holds for actual sales this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$47,840Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production has begun at Giga Texas with initial units rolling out earlier in 2026, yet traders assign an 84% probability against retail sales at $30,000 or below by year-end primarily due to persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving software validation and regulatory approvals needed for commercial robotaxi operations. Large-scale manufacturing ramps and fleet deployment remain gated behind FSD version 15 expectations in late 2026 or beyond, while early vehicles prioritize internal testing over priced customer deliveries. Upcoming catalysts include software milestone releases, Texas and California permitting decisions, and any official pricing or volume production updates that could clarify whether the original sub-$30,000 target holds for actual sales this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$47,840Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab production has begun at Giga Texas with initial units rolling out earlier in 2026, yet traders assign an 84% probability against retail sales at $30,000 or below by year-end primarily due to persistent delays in unsupervised Full Self-Driving software validation and regulatory approvals needed for commercial robotaxi operations. Large-scale manufacturing ramps and fleet deployment remain gated behind FSD version 15 expectations in late 2026 or beyond, while early vehicles prioritize internal testing over priced customer deliveries. Upcoming catalysts include software milestone releases, Texas and California permitting decisions, and any official pricing or volume production updates that could clarify whether the original sub-$30,000 target holds for actual sales this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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