**Community technical fingerprinting has driven Z.ai to a dominant 90% market-implied probability for owning Ox Alpha.** The anonymous reasoning model launched on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, under the stealth provider label with a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and long-horizon agentic work. Multiple independent probes—tokenizer matches (95/95 with GLM-5.3), exact API error strings, video-token accounting, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM family while ruling out stronger matches elsewhere. No lab has officially claimed it, and other candidates like Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI show far weaker alignment, keeping their odds below 4%. The free window is expected to end around August 27, after which an official attribution could resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertZ.ai 89%
Google 5.7%
Safe Superintelligence 3.9%
Cursor 2.6%
NEU
$24,416 Vol.
NEU
$24,416 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Z.ai
89%
6%
Safe Superintelligence
4%
Cursor
3%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Microsoft
1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot KI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai 89%
Google 5.7%
Safe Superintelligence 3.9%
Cursor 2.6%
NEU
$24,416 Vol.
NEU
$24,416 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Z.ai
$8,109 Vol.
89%
$1,692 Vol.
6%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,352 Vol.
4%
Cursor
$1,224 Vol.
3%
Meta
$366 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,276 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$1,177 Vol.
1%
xAI
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$955 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$809 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$922 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$579 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot KI
$743 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$547 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$532 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$918 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$589 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$819 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$770 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$366 Vol.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Community technical fingerprinting has driven Z.ai to a dominant 90% market-implied probability for owning Ox Alpha.** The anonymous reasoning model launched on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, under the stealth provider label with a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and long-horizon agentic work. Multiple independent probes—tokenizer matches (95/95 with GLM-5.3), exact API error strings, video-token accounting, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM family while ruling out stronger matches elsewhere. No lab has officially claimed it, and other candidates like Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI show far weaker alignment, keeping their odds below 4%. The free window is expected to end around August 27, after which an official attribution could resolve the market.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volumen
$24,416Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Community technical fingerprinting has driven Z.ai to a dominant 90% market-implied probability for owning Ox Alpha.** The anonymous reasoning model launched on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, under the stealth provider label with a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and long-horizon agentic work. Multiple independent probes—tokenizer matches (95/95 with GLM-5.3), exact API error strings, video-token accounting, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM family while ruling out stronger matches elsewhere. No lab has officially claimed it, and other candidates like Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI show far weaker alignment, keeping their odds below 4%. The free window is expected to end around August 27, after which an official attribution could resolve the market.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$24,416Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Community technical fingerprinting has driven Z.ai to a dominant 90% market-implied probability for owning Ox Alpha.** The anonymous reasoning model launched on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, under the stealth provider label with a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and long-horizon agentic work. Multiple independent probes—tokenizer matches (95/95 with GLM-5.3), exact API error strings, video-token accounting, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM family while ruling out stronger matches elsewhere. No lab has officially claimed it, and other candidates like Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI show far weaker alignment, keeping their odds below 4%. The free window is expected to end around August 27, after which an official attribution could resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen