Recent US-Iran framework negotiations, including a draft memorandum covering sanctions relief on oil exports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initial steps toward broader nuclear discussions, represent the dominant near-term influence on the rial. These developments follow earlier conflict-related disruptions and have prompted market expectations of phased sanctions easing, which could support Iranian oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Official and open-market USD/IRR rates currently trade in the 1.37–1.56 million range, with limited movement in the past week amid cautious trader positioning. Persistent domestic inflation and structural economic pressures continue to exert downward pressure on the rial, but the immediate diplomatic timeline—final deal elements potentially unfolding over the next 60 days—constrains sharp further depreciation before June 30 resolution. Prediction market pricing reflects this balance, with higher-rate thresholds carrying lower implied probabilities given the sanctions-relief catalyst.