Recent polling from Genial/Quaest places incumbent governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO) in a statistical tie for the first-round vote in Bahia’s October 2026 election, with both near 38-39%. Traders assign Rodrigues a modest lead, reflecting his stable approval ratings above 55%, gains in municipal endorsements since 2022, and incumbency advantages in a state where PT has held the governorship for two decades. Neto’s support has softened after his party’s national break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, narrowing his earlier edge. Minor candidates remain marginal, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among swing voters and second-round dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al gobernador de Bahía
Ganador de las elecciones al gobernador de Bahía
Jerônimo Rodrigues 56%
ACM Neto 46%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$96,393 Vol.
$96,393 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
56%
ACM Neto
46%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 56%
ACM Neto 46%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$96,393 Vol.
$96,393 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$32,117 Vol.
56%
ACM Neto
$31,614 Vol.
46%
Kleber Rosa
$8,653 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$7,751 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Genial/Quaest places incumbent governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO) in a statistical tie for the first-round vote in Bahia’s October 2026 election, with both near 38-39%. Traders assign Rodrigues a modest lead, reflecting his stable approval ratings above 55%, gains in municipal endorsements since 2022, and incumbency advantages in a state where PT has held the governorship for two decades. Neto’s support has softened after his party’s national break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, narrowing his earlier edge. Minor candidates remain marginal, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among swing voters and second-round dynamics.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$96,393Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Genial/Quaest places incumbent governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO) in a statistical tie for the first-round vote in Bahia’s October 2026 election, with both near 38-39%. Traders assign Rodrigues a modest lead, reflecting his stable approval ratings above 55%, gains in municipal endorsements since 2022, and incumbency advantages in a state where PT has held the governorship for two decades. Neto’s support has softened after his party’s national break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, narrowing his earlier edge. Minor candidates remain marginal, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among swing voters and second-round dynamics.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$96,393Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Genial/Quaest places incumbent governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO) in a statistical tie for the first-round vote in Bahia’s October 2026 election, with both near 38-39%. Traders assign Rodrigues a modest lead, reflecting his stable approval ratings above 55%, gains in municipal endorsements since 2022, and incumbency advantages in a state where PT has held the governorship for two decades. Neto’s support has softened after his party’s national break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, narrowing his earlier edge. Minor candidates remain marginal, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among swing voters and second-round dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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