Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting the incumbent’s established party machinery, consistent mid-40s polling support, and roughly 50% approval ratings amid Bahia’s long PT dominance. ACM Neto (União Brasil) trails in the market despite some September surveys showing him ahead or tied, as his center-right coalition has yet to consolidate enough undecided voters to overcome the structural advantages of the sitting governor. Minor candidates register negligible support in both polls and pricing, confirming the contest remains a two-person affair. Late-campaign dynamics, including coalition turnout efforts and any shifts among the roughly 10-15% still undecided, will determine whether the race heads to a runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al gobernador de Bahía
Ganador de las elecciones al gobernador de Bahía
Jerônimo Rodrigues 61%
ACM Neto 40%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$154,613 Vol.
$154,613 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
61%
ACM Neto
40%
João Roma
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 61%
ACM Neto 40%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$154,613 Vol.
$154,613 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$51,196 Vol.
61%
ACM Neto
$61,293 Vol.
40%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting the incumbent’s established party machinery, consistent mid-40s polling support, and roughly 50% approval ratings amid Bahia’s long PT dominance. ACM Neto (União Brasil) trails in the market despite some September surveys showing him ahead or tied, as his center-right coalition has yet to consolidate enough undecided voters to overcome the structural advantages of the sitting governor. Minor candidates register negligible support in both polls and pricing, confirming the contest remains a two-person affair. Late-campaign dynamics, including coalition turnout efforts and any shifts among the roughly 10-15% still undecided, will determine whether the race heads to a runoff on October 25.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$154,613Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting the incumbent’s established party machinery, consistent mid-40s polling support, and roughly 50% approval ratings amid Bahia’s long PT dominance. ACM Neto (União Brasil) trails in the market despite some September surveys showing him ahead or tied, as his center-right coalition has yet to consolidate enough undecided voters to overcome the structural advantages of the sitting governor. Minor candidates register negligible support in both polls and pricing, confirming the contest remains a two-person affair. Late-campaign dynamics, including coalition turnout efforts and any shifts among the roughly 10-15% still undecided, will determine whether the race heads to a runoff on October 25.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$154,613Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a clear edge in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting the incumbent’s established party machinery, consistent mid-40s polling support, and roughly 50% approval ratings amid Bahia’s long PT dominance. ACM Neto (União Brasil) trails in the market despite some September surveys showing him ahead or tied, as his center-right coalition has yet to consolidate enough undecided voters to overcome the structural advantages of the sitting governor. Minor candidates register negligible support in both polls and pricing, confirming the contest remains a two-person affair. Late-campaign dynamics, including coalition turnout efforts and any shifts among the roughly 10-15% still undecided, will determine whether the race heads to a runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes