The 2026 Federal District governor race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October vote, with no candidate securing a dominant position in recent polling and traders assigning roughly even implied probabilities across more than a dozen names. Celina Leão (PP), the current acting governor, leads first-round surveys but faces technical ties or narrow gaps with ex-governor José Roberto Arruda (PSD) in head-to-head matchups, while left-leaning options such as Leandro Grass (PT) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) plus center-right figures including Paula Belmonte and Kiko Caputo split the remaining support. Term limits on incumbent Ibaneis Rocha have opened the field, and ongoing alliance negotiations plus low name recognition for several contenders sustain the tight distribution. Late-cycle coalition decisions, additional polling shifts, or turnout patterns in Brasília could still consolidate votes and widen the gap among the leaders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de la elección del gobernador del distrito federal
Ganador de la elección del gobernador del distrito federal
Cappelli 44%
Celina Leão 44%
Expedito Mendonça 44%
Paula Belmonte 44%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Cappelli
44%
Celina Leão
44%
Expedito Mendonça
44%
Paula Belmonte
44%
Professora Samara Mineiro
44%
Elisson
44%
Leandro Grass
44%
Professor Robson
44%
Kiko Caputo
42%
Arruda
42%
Cappelli 44%
Celina Leão 44%
Expedito Mendonça 44%
Paula Belmonte 44%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Cappelli
$0 Vol.
44%
Celina Leão
$0 Vol.
44%
Expedito Mendonça
$0 Vol.
44%
Paula Belmonte
$0 Vol.
44%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$0 Vol.
44%
Elisson
$0 Vol.
44%
Leandro Grass
$0 Vol.
44%
Professor Robson
$0 Vol.
44%
Kiko Caputo
$0 Vol.
42%
Arruda
$0 Vol.
42%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Federal District governor race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October vote, with no candidate securing a dominant position in recent polling and traders assigning roughly even implied probabilities across more than a dozen names. Celina Leão (PP), the current acting governor, leads first-round surveys but faces technical ties or narrow gaps with ex-governor José Roberto Arruda (PSD) in head-to-head matchups, while left-leaning options such as Leandro Grass (PT) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) plus center-right figures including Paula Belmonte and Kiko Caputo split the remaining support. Term limits on incumbent Ibaneis Rocha have opened the field, and ongoing alliance negotiations plus low name recognition for several contenders sustain the tight distribution. Late-cycle coalition decisions, additional polling shifts, or turnout patterns in Brasília could still consolidate votes and widen the gap among the leaders.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Federal District governor race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October vote, with no candidate securing a dominant position in recent polling and traders assigning roughly even implied probabilities across more than a dozen names. Celina Leão (PP), the current acting governor, leads first-round surveys but faces technical ties or narrow gaps with ex-governor José Roberto Arruda (PSD) in head-to-head matchups, while left-leaning options such as Leandro Grass (PT) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) plus center-right figures including Paula Belmonte and Kiko Caputo split the remaining support. Term limits on incumbent Ibaneis Rocha have opened the field, and ongoing alliance negotiations plus low name recognition for several contenders sustain the tight distribution. Late-cycle coalition decisions, additional polling shifts, or turnout patterns in Brasília could still consolidate votes and widen the gap among the leaders.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Federal District governor race remains highly fragmented ahead of the October vote, with no candidate securing a dominant position in recent polling and traders assigning roughly even implied probabilities across more than a dozen names. Celina Leão (PP), the current acting governor, leads first-round surveys but faces technical ties or narrow gaps with ex-governor José Roberto Arruda (PSD) in head-to-head matchups, while left-leaning options such as Leandro Grass (PT) and Ricardo Cappelli (PSB) plus center-right figures including Paula Belmonte and Kiko Caputo split the remaining support. Term limits on incumbent Ibaneis Rocha have opened the field, and ongoing alliance negotiations plus low name recognition for several contenders sustain the tight distribution. Late-cycle coalition decisions, additional polling shifts, or turnout patterns in Brasília could still consolidate votes and widen the gap among the leaders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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