Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the primary right-wing contender for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, backed by his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and nomination at the Liberal Party convention in late July. Recent polls show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round intentions near 40 percent, with Flávio trailing but well ahead of fragmented alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus reflects Flávio’s dominance on the right despite earlier setbacks, including leaked audios and a temporary family rift with Michelle Bolsonaro that were later addressed. Lula’s campaign launch, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and ongoing U.S. tariff debates have kept the race competitive while limiting shifts among opposition voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 82%
Renan Santos 8.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.8%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,499,879 Vol.
$4,499,879 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
82%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 82%
Renan Santos 8.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.8%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,499,879 Vol.
$4,499,879 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
82%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the primary right-wing contender for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, backed by his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and nomination at the Liberal Party convention in late July. Recent polls show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round intentions near 40 percent, with Flávio trailing but well ahead of fragmented alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus reflects Flávio’s dominance on the right despite earlier setbacks, including leaked audios and a temporary family rift with Michelle Bolsonaro that were later addressed. Lula’s campaign launch, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and ongoing U.S. tariff debates have kept the race competitive while limiting shifts among opposition voters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes