Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential election with roughly 80 percent implied probability. Recent polling consistently places the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, typically in the high 20s percent while other declared or potential candidates remain in single digits. The Bolsonaro family’s established base within the right-wing electorate, combined with limited fragmentation among opposition voters, underpins trader consensus. Renan Santos of the Mission Party has registered modest gains, especially among younger voters, yet trails far behind in surveys. Lula’s first-round support hovers near or above 40 percent, reinforcing expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro will consolidate the leading challenger position absent major shifts before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.7%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
$4,383,648 Vol.
$4,383,648 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 81%
Renan Santos 10.7%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.9%
Fernando Haddad 1.1%
$4,383,648 Vol.
$4,383,648 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
81%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential election with roughly 80 percent implied probability. Recent polling consistently places the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, typically in the high 20s percent while other declared or potential candidates remain in single digits. The Bolsonaro family’s established base within the right-wing electorate, combined with limited fragmentation among opposition voters, underpins trader consensus. Renan Santos of the Mission Party has registered modest gains, especially among younger voters, yet trails far behind in surveys. Lula’s first-round support hovers near or above 40 percent, reinforcing expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro will consolidate the leading challenger position absent major shifts before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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