Recent polling averages from late July show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first-round field by 5–9 points, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently in second place at 32–36 percent. Right-wing fragmentation across candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap. Flávio Bolsonaro’s party nomination and name recognition have consolidated opposition support behind him in most surveys, while Renan Santos’s recent Mission Party convention and lower single-digit polling keep him a distant alternative. Traders’ heavy weighting of Flávio Bolsonaro for second place aligns with these patterns and the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 80%
Renan Santos 8.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.4%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,378,478 Vol.
$4,378,478 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
80%
Renan Santos
9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 80%
Renan Santos 8.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.4%
Camilo Santana 1.2%
$4,378,478 Vol.
$4,378,478 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
80%
Renan Santos
9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Camilo Santana
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages from late July show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first-round field by 5–9 points, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consistently in second place at 32–36 percent. Right-wing fragmentation across candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos has limited any single challenger’s ability to close the gap. Flávio Bolsonaro’s party nomination and name recognition have consolidated opposition support behind him in most surveys, while Renan Santos’s recent Mission Party convention and lower single-digit polling keep him a distant alternative. Traders’ heavy weighting of Flávio Bolsonaro for second place aligns with these patterns and the absence of major shifts in the final weeks before the October 4 first round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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