Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus, due to his position as incumbent with consistent polling advantages of 15–18 points over Fernando Haddad in recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas. High approval ratings for his administration, often above 45% rating it good or excellent, and a fragmented opposition field have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October election. Haddad remains the primary challenger from the PT, yet trails notably in first-round and runoff simulations. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, candidate registration alignments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in key regions, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,989 Vol.
$283,989 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,989 Vol.
$283,989 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$127,023 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$47,765 Vol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,829 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus, due to his position as incumbent with consistent polling advantages of 15–18 points over Fernando Haddad in recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas. High approval ratings for his administration, often above 45% rating it good or excellent, and a fragmented opposition field have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October election. Haddad remains the primary challenger from the PT, yet trails notably in first-round and runoff simulations. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, candidate registration alignments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in key regions, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the incumbent.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$283,989Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus, due to his position as incumbent with consistent polling advantages of 15–18 points over Fernando Haddad in recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas. High approval ratings for his administration, often above 45% rating it good or excellent, and a fragmented opposition field have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October election. Haddad remains the primary challenger from the PT, yet trails notably in first-round and runoff simulations. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, candidate registration alignments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in key regions, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the incumbent.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$283,989Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus, due to his position as incumbent with consistent polling advantages of 15–18 points over Fernando Haddad in recent surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas. High approval ratings for his administration, often above 45% rating it good or excellent, and a fragmented opposition field have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October election. Haddad remains the primary challenger from the PT, yet trails notably in first-round and runoff simulations. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, candidate registration alignments, or unforeseen events affecting voter turnout in key regions, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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