Recent polls from Market Links (April 7-14) and CAR (April 3-14) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading with 32-37% support versus GERB-SDS at 19-21%, implying a 12-16% vote margin and projecting PB 90-110 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation. This trader consensus—PB 10-15% margin at 39.5%, 15-20% at 26.5%—reflects stable double-digit leads amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021 on April 19, triggered by repeated coalition failures. Lower odds for narrower margins or GERB-SDS victory stem from PB's momentum under former President Rumen Radev, though low historical turnout and post-election government formation remain key uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones parlamentarias en Bulgaria: margen de victoria
Elecciones parlamentarias en Bulgaria: margen de victoria
PB 10-15% 40%
PB 15-20% 25%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB 20%+ 6.0%
$47,201 Vol.
$47,201 Vol.
19 abr 2026
PB 20%+
6%
PB 15-20%
25%
PB 10-15%
40%
PB 5-10%
24%
PB <5%
2%
Victoria de GERB-SDS
<1%
Otro
<1%
PB 10-15% 40%
PB 15-20% 25%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB 20%+ 6.0%
$47,201 Vol.
$47,201 Vol.
19 abr 2026
PB 20%+
$3,764 Vol.
6%
PB 15-20%
$15,771 Vol.
25%
PB 10-15%
$14,680 Vol.
40%
PB 5-10%
$7,424 Vol.
24%
PB <5%
$2,578 Vol.
2%
Victoria de GERB-SDS
$1,710 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Market Links (April 7-14) and CAR (April 3-14) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading with 32-37% support versus GERB-SDS at 19-21%, implying a 12-16% vote margin and projecting PB 90-110 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation. This trader consensus—PB 10-15% margin at 39.5%, 15-20% at 26.5%—reflects stable double-digit leads amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021 on April 19, triggered by repeated coalition failures. Lower odds for narrower margins or GERB-SDS victory stem from PB's momentum under former President Rumen Radev, though low historical turnout and post-election government formation remain key uncertainties.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volumen
$47,201Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Market Links (April 7-14) and CAR (April 3-14) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading with 32-37% support versus GERB-SDS at 19-21%, implying a 12-16% vote margin and projecting PB 90-110 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation. This trader consensus—PB 10-15% margin at 39.5%, 15-20% at 26.5%—reflects stable double-digit leads amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021 on April 19, triggered by repeated coalition failures. Lower odds for narrower margins or GERB-SDS victory stem from PB's momentum under former President Rumen Radev, though low historical turnout and post-election government formation remain key uncertainties.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volumen
$47,201Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Market Links (April 7-14) and CAR (April 3-14) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB) leading with 32-37% support versus GERB-SDS at 19-21%, implying a 12-16% vote margin and projecting PB 90-110 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation. This trader consensus—PB 10-15% margin at 39.5%, 15-20% at 26.5%—reflects stable double-digit leads amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021 on April 19, triggered by repeated coalition failures. Lower odds for narrower margins or GERB-SDS victory stem from PB's momentum under former President Rumen Radev, though low historical turnout and post-election government formation remain key uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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